Mahe Drysdale, rowing single scull
Another defending Olympic champion who, fitness and health permitting, will arrive in Rio as the short-odds favourite for a repeat crown. By winning the Lucerne World Cup title with a different strategy, going out hard early and destroying the field, Drysdale gave himself a fillip. It confirmed he has more than one way to skin this particular cat.
Lightweight women's double scull
Julia Edward and Sophie Mackenzie have established themselves as the world's best small women combination. They won last year's world title in their first regatta together and have been highly impressive this year.
Women's double scull
An intriguing situation. Last year Zoe Stevenson and Fiona Bourke won the world title in Amsterdam. This year, Bourke was moved into the single seat, in the absence of 2014 world champion Emma Twigg, who has taken a year away for study in Europe. Eve Macfarlane joined Stevenson and they will go to the worlds next month as favourites, on the back of the ability to finish a race with a powerful kick.
Men's lightweight four
Mark this quartet down for a medal, with a real chance of gold. James Hunter, Alastair Bond, James Lassche and Curtis Rapley won the Lucerne regatta last month and are travelling well. They have regularly been on the podium for the last couple of years. A tough contest with the Danes, in particular, is brewing. So is a medal, maybe even gold.
Emma Twigg, single scull
This presumes that Twigg returns to the solo seat after a year off. But as world champion a year ago, she has the quality to be at, or beside the top of the podium in Rio. Her biggest rival is expected to be top-class Australian Kim Crow and that could be a battle royal.
Lisa Carrington, 200m kayak sprint
The Auckland-based Bay of Plenty paddler has become the star turn since winning the world title in 2011. She won the Olympic title in London and has added formidable 500m skills to her repertoire. But it's the sprint where she remains the dominant figure. Gold again.
Peter Burling and Blair Tuke, sailing 49er class
Dialled back version of Murray and Bond in terms of duration of their pre-eminence of their discipline. The pair have won 18 straight regattas since winning silver at the London Games.
Jo Aleh and Polly Powrie, sailing 470 class
The defending Olympic champions and with a clutch of victories since then, and current world No1 crew. A big chance for another gold.
Alex Maloney and Molly Meech, sailing 49erFX class
New Zealand's third world champion crew but who would sit fractionally below the other two in terms of depth and duration of performance. But expect them to be firing in Rio.
Women's rugby sevens
What better way to start the introduction of a new sport on to the Olympic programme than by winning it. Both New Zealand teams are big chances but we'll plump for the women, whose competition is weaker than the men's, for the gold medal.
Men's rugby sevens
See above, but the men will have a more difficult task. Two golds seems a touch too much to expect. Silver medal.
Cycling team sprint
Spectacular world champs in 2014, and would have backed it up this year only to be relegated for an illegal change. Still, Sam Webster, Ethan Mitchell and Eddie Dawkins - if they retain their places ahead of fellow sprinters Matt Archibald and Simon van Velthooven - look good for Rio.
Val Adams, shot put
If this study was being undertaken last year it would have been a lay down misere - gold for the winner of 56 successive international events, and two-time Olympic champion. But double injury and recuperation has been more complicated than anticipated. Her form since returning to competition last month has been below par, plus German Christina Schwanitz has emerged as a genuine challenger. Right now you could not mark Adams down as a surefire gold medallist. But she should certainly make the podium, fitness permitting.
Lauren Boyle, swimming
Boyle will be chasing silver and bronze, given the dominance of freakish American teenager Katie Ledecky. Boyle is ready to win New Zealand's first pool medal since Danyon Loader's double gold in Atlanta in 1996.
Eventing team
Such is the calibre of New Zealand's leading riders, you could plump for individual and team success. But let's not get greedy. Perm four from, in no order, Jock Paget, Andrew Nicholson (if his imbroglio with Equestrian Sport New Zealand is resolved and he's back in the high-performance squad in good time), Jonelle and Tim Price and Mark Todd and you get a top calibre team. Hard not to see them figuring at the sharp end.
Lydia Ko
World No2 women's golfer and must rate a big chance for a medal.
And those not on the list, but who could well figure on the medal table would include:
Sam Webster (cycling individual sprint), men's cycling team pursuit, Kerri Gowler and Grace Prendergast (rowing coxless pair), Tom Walsh (shot put), women's hockey team, Josh Junior or Andrew Murdoch (Finn), Andy Maloney or Sam Meech (Laser), and for a smoking gun, the women's K4 kayak team.
