Olympics: Speculating for a gold rush

Olympic champion Tom Ashley is coming to the end of a year off. Photo / Getty Images

SPARC will put the acid on a number of sports in 2010 as they chase their goal of 10 medals at the 2012 London Olympics.

This year has been successful for New Zealand athletes, with 10 medals at world championships in Olympic sports - the most since 1992 - including six world champions. Twenty-four athletes also finished in the top eight.

But it needs to be viewed in context, given many athletes here and overseas have taken a "gap year".

Olympic and world champion boardsailor Tom Ashley, kayaker Ben Fouhy, runner Nick Willis, sailor Andrew Murdoch and rowers George Bridgewater, Nathan Twaddle and Juliette Haigh all took a year off to refresh or were injured.

Most will be back competing in 2010, along with others around the world who also took a year off.

Sparc, who see themselves as The Bank, will conduct a full review at the end of next year and decide on the levels of funding each sport is allocated.

"The big reason 2010 is critical for most sports is that as you get closer and closer to the Olympics, world championships become a better indicator of how people are likely to perform," high performance manager Martin Toomey says.

"We are halfway through an Olympic cycle and the majority of the best athletes will be back competing. It will be a stronger pointer to Olympic success than 2009.

"The [six] targeted sports are all about delivering medals in 2012. If we don't think people are likely to deliver, then we need to make sure those that are, are better resourced. That could well result in people losing some of the levels of investment they have currently."

The six sports - rowing, cycling, athletics, swimming, triathlon and sailing - received $12 million this year. They can expect similar levels of funding if they maintain performances.

Although 2009 was a success, only four sports won world championship medals, meaning the onus will be on others to prove their worth.

Swimming has come under the most scrutiny in recent times. They received $1.35 million this year - more than athletics ($1.3 million) and triathlon ($1.2 million) - yet have not come close to winning a world championship medal.

They were put on notice this year but will be given some extra time to prove themselves because of the swimming suit controversy.

From January 1, swimming bosses will ban the controversial polyurethane suits which have seen swathes of new world records set and other previously unheralded swimmers shooting to prominence.

The sport is also going through some structural changes and Toomey says they need time for those to make a difference.

Triathlon introduced a world series this year with a final race carrying more importance and Toomey says they will look to next year's final race as an indicator of the sport's health.

Fouhy's return to kayaking and 1500m runner Willis' return to the track will be closely monitored.

Equestrian, a sport which receives money on a two-yearly basis, will also come under the spotlight. The sport contests a world championships every two years, with the next scheduled for 2010.

Meanwhile, New Zealand plan to send 200 athletes to next year's Commonwealth Games in Delhi but haven't announced a medal target.

The NZOC have stuck to their selection criteria for the 2010 Games, with athletes and teams being picked on the basis they have the potential to finish in the top six. This differs to the Olympics, where the criteria is based around a "credible" top-16 finish.

A team of 249 competed across 19 disciplines at Melbourne in 2006, although less stringent criteria were imposed for fringe athletes because it was viewed as a virtual "home" Games. The team didn't deliver as well as expected, winning 31 medals when a tally of closer to 50 had been set.

Exactly 200 athletes competed at Manchester in 2002, for a return of 45 medals.

"Our Games team is likely to be around 200 and we expect it to be a strong team," NZOC president Mike Stanley said.

"We have set the goal of a top-six finish, which we believe is acceptable to New Zealanders and attainable."

World beaters

New Zealand's world championship medallists in 2009:

GOLD
* Valerie Vili: Shot put (athletics)
* Sarah Walker: BMX (cycling)
* Alison Shanks: Individual pursuit (cycling)
* Mahe Drysdale: Single sculls (rowing)
* Storm Uru & Peter Taylor: Lightweight double sculls (rowing)
* Hamish Bond & Eric Murray: Pair (rowing)

SILVER
* Michael Bullot: Laser (sailing)
* Hamish Pepper & Craig Monk: Star (sailing)

BRONZE
* Men's team pursuit (cycling)
* Emma-Jane Feathery & Rebecca Scown: Pair (rowing)