Retaining the $9.11 million of taxpayer investment in the sport over the Rio Olympic cycle also depends on medals. That's the only way to eradicate doubts the world No 9 Nicholson's omission is the right decision.
Nicholson suffered a broken neck last August but has recovered to start in eight three- or four-star events this season, with six top-10 finishes. They include winning this month's three-star event at Barbury Castle, albeit over an abbreviated cross-country course, on his top mount Nereo. That form is better than any of the Rio selections.
ESNZ would counter by saying their best four riders finished in the top 10 at Badminton, an event Nicholson opted out of to rehabilitate. Nicholson would riposte with the fact he had fifth- and seventh-placed finishes at the most recent four-star event at Luhmuhlen in mid-June.
Another obstacle lurks in the reinstatement debate - precedents. Todd was accused of cocaine use by Britain's Sunday Mirror ahead of the Sydney Games but competed because the NZOC said he had never failed a drugs test. ESNZ also went to legal lengths to get Paget reinstated after his horse, Clifton Promise, tested positive for the banned drug reserpine after winning Burghley in 2014. His lawyers proved a 'no fault or negligence' defence and his penalty was 'time already served'. The title passed to Nicholson.
"They won't be whistling me up [to Rio]," Nicholson said about ESNZ. "But since my injury I've decided I'm happy doing things the way I am. I'm comfortable with my situation and the team I've got at home.
"I've been almost two years without the team squad training and I'm happy to compare my results with anyone.
"I'm always available. I knew about a year ago, when they said I wasn't ready to be put back into the team situation, that it was pretty much a one-way ticket out."
An emailed statement from ESNZ justified their selection process.
"Andrew submitted an initial athlete application which registered his interest, but then did not complete a number of the other requirements. As with any other rider, we followed these requirements up and reminded Andrew of them multiple times. Those who didn't meet these prerequisites and deadlines cannot be considered.
"We are pleased to see Andrew back and competing after such a dreadful accident.
"Had Andrew completed all the conditions of nomination, we would have been in a position where we would have had to consider Andrew's health and fitness (as we did for every other rider)... we didn't get to a point where this needed to be considered. The door remains open for future dialogue from our end.
"We are very confident in this team... it's not necessarily a given that Andrew would have been in from a performance perspective."
Other Olympic bad luck stories
1. Roy Williams
The 1966 Commonwealth Games champion could have attended four Olympics (Melbourne, Rome, Tokyo and Mexico City) if modern selection policies applied, but bureaucratic bungling or injury curtailed each chance. He later covered Games as a journalist.
2. Bruce Biddle
Edged into fourth in the 1972 cycling road race, Biddle was promoted to third after Spaniard Jaime Huelamo's disqualification for doping. Games and cycling authorities refused to award Biddle the bronze because he was never tested, despite offering.
3. Rod Dixon
The 5000m photo finish in 1976 saw Dixon miss bronze by 0.12s. Controversy reigned because German Klaus-Peter Hildenbrand fell to the line (athletes had to finish with their bodies at least 1m above the ground). New Zealand officials decided not to protest.
4. The 1980 Moscow team*
The National government decided New Zealand would back the American boycott, generated by the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan. Some saw this as hypocritical; New Zealand kept trading with the USSR while many athletes lost their only Games opportunity. *There were four exceptions.
5. Valerie Young (nee Sloper)
Throwing the shot, Young finished fourth in 1960 and 1964. She was 3cm off bronze at Rome behind Soviet Tamara Press, East German Johanna Lüttge and American Earlene Brown. At Tokyo, she was 19cm behind Press, East German Renate Culmberger and Soviet Galina Zybina.
