Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles, 67 percent Pick: Philadelphia Eagles +3
No, backup quarterback Nick Foles is not as good as Carson Wentz - that's obvious - but the Eagles defense is still the same one that was ranked as the fifth-best per DVOA and the second-best defensive unit per the game charters at Pro Football Focus.
They will also prove to be a much-tougher test for the Falcons than their recent opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, in the NFC wild-card game.
For instance, Philadelphia surrendered 7.7 fewer points per game than expected based on the down, distance and field position of each opposing play against. The Rams, by comparison, allowed 5.1 fewer points per game than expected. The Eagles also stuffed 28 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage during the regular season, 10 percentage points better than the Rams (18 percent).
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Winner: New England Patriots, 82 percent Pick: Tennessee Titans +13.5
What more can be said of New England's offense? Quarterback Tom Brady finished the regular-season as the third-most valuable quarterback per ESPN's Total Quarterback Rating and was instrumental in the team scoring a league-leading 2.6 points per drive, nearly a point per drive more than the league average (1.8), and the 12th best scoring efficiency since 2002, the year the league expanded to 32 teams.
Tennessee's pass defense, meanwhile, ranked 24th per opponent-adjusted DVOA and allowed the second-highest passer rating to quarterbacks when they targeted their running backs out of the backfield (106.2).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars, 52 percent Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +7
Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles was underwhelming in Sunday's 10-3 AFC wild-card win over the Buffalo Bills. He completed 12 of 23 passes for 87 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions and actually was more productive on the ground (10 carries for 88 yards) than he was through the air.
But the Jaguars' playoff hopes will live and die by how their defense plays, and right now, there is no team better at stopping the pass. Including the playoffs, Jacksonville is allowing a league-low 68.5 passer rating with a defensive front that sacks the quarterback on 9.1 percent of pass attempts after adjusting for down, distance and opponent, the second-best mark in the NFL this season.
And when Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is under pressure, he is much less effective. His passer rating drops from 103.5 to 62.1 under pressure this season, roughly the difference between Drew Brees (103.9 passer rating) and DeShone Kizer (60.5, the worst rating by a passer this season).
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Winner: Minnesota Vikings, 66 percent Pick: Minnesota Vikings -4.5
If I asked you during the preseason where quarterback Case Keenum would rank in QBR, do you think you would have had him anywhere close to his No. 2 spot behind Carson Wentz and ahead of Brady? Me either, but here we are.
Give some credit to Coach Mike Zimmer and Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur for putting Keenum in a position to succeed. The Vikings had Keenum run play-action 29 percent of the time in 2017, just a fraction of a percentage point lower than Jared Goff for the highest rate in the NFL, which helped boost his passer rating from 92.8 to 111.8 on those attempts.
And even if he slips a little against New Orleans, Minnesota's defense will be able to pick up the slack. Its defense has allowed 8.9 fewer points per game than expected in 2017, the second-best mark behind the Jaguars (12.8) this season and the 16th best effort since 2002.
