By MIKE DILLON
Making a jumper the bet of the day is an act of faith, but it's that time of year.
And Real Tonic in this afternoon's $50,000 TV Guide Hurdles is just about the safest bet on a tough programme at Ellerslie.
Trainer John Wheeler has had a host of fine jumpers in the last decade and Real Tonic, with three wins from four hurdle races, looks about to join Wheeler's A-team.
If you were not impressed with his last-start Waikato Hurdles win you simply were not watching.
He swamped them with a sprint you don't often see in jumping races. What was impressive was that Wheeler believed the horse was less than 100 per cent fit.
He will be as fit as any other and will run the last 600m faster, which makes him the winner.
Sir Avion looks a big danger, despite 65kg topweight. His run in the Waikato Hurdles was fabulous and being a dour stayer the jump in distance is what he has been waiting for.
Queen might run on into the money, which will make the trifecta.
If the ground is testing, and it's likely to be, Wheeler might get an earlier winner in Ahjay Dubbleu (No2, R4). The Yachtie filly is tough and, unlike many of the opposition, has had the racing to fit her for a grind for the babies. She was narrowly beaten at Trentham and Te Rapa, both on rain-affected footing. Von Ryans (No12) did well for third on debut at Te Rapa and handled wet conditions brilliantly when winning by seven lengths at the Cambridge trials. He looks to have a future. Wedding Dream (No13) has been impressive at the trials and Humayun (No4) finished strongly to win at the Avondale trials.
Francis Henry (No3, R2) gives the impression he will not be in maidens long. He was caught in the last few bounds at Ruakaka last start after a passage that was less than ideal. There is not a huge amount of form in this race and he looks a strong chance. Beauregard (No4) impressed on debut at Ruakaka and Anchor Me (No2) and Travis Tee (No1) are trifecta chances.
Regardless of his 67.5kg topweight, Currency (No1, R3) has only to improve a couple of lengths from last Saturday to win the steeplechase. In finishing fourth last week he was having his first steeplechase since winning the Grand National nearly two years ago and was up against the leading chances for Monday's Mercedes Great Northern. This is a grade down from that field and Currency makes a lot of appeal.
Go Thenaki (No2, R5) has only to reproduce his last-start effort to take all sorts of beating. He pushed hard that day to be only half a length behind hugely talented Copper Mountain. He handles winter tracks very well. There is plenty of class to beat.
War Dancer (No8) can run a big race fresh; Egyptian Raine (No1) and Fulla Vink (No3) are talented.
Little to separate Rocky Point (No1, R8) and Finbar Reidy (No4). Rocky Point came from the back of the field to finish a close third to Elfonze at Awapuni last week, but it was probably a fraction down on the run behind Copper Mountain.
He appears very solid. Finbar Reidy has not had a great deal of luck since resuming and has been waiting to get a true winter track.
Racing: Jumper looks Real Tonic on tough programme
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