If you had to take a punt on the number of New Zealand Super Rugby players who have gone on to represent overseas clubs then half sounds about right.
These days it's rare for a player to retire here without playing abroad. It is becoming the exception to the rule – think Richie McCaw and Wyatt Crockett, two men who emptied the tank for the Crusaders and All Blacks and who wanted to do something else with their lives once they finished.
So while the New Zealand Herald's study that confirms it is just over 50 per cent may not be a huge surprise, perhaps more curious is that rather than the numbers heading abroad – the "exodus" in popular terms – growing, they have in fact slowed over the past three years.
Last year only 14 Super Rugby players left New Zealand for their overseas experience, the lowest number since 2001. It reached a peak of 38 departees in 2015, a World Cup year.
That probably makes it more of a slowing trickle than a flood, although there are many playing this year for New Zealand franchises, and with one exception the All Blacks, who won't next year – including names such as Ryan Crotty, Kieran Read, Ben Smith, Owen Franks, Liam Squire, Jackson Hemopo, Luke Whitelock, Nehe Milner-Skudder and Jordan Taufua.
That is a long and distinguished list which presumably won't be added to by Beauden Barrett and Brodie Retallick who have yet to recommit to New Zealand Rugby.
The numbers leaving these shores always peak during World Cup years – or at least they have since 2007 – because those not quite in the All Black frame are eager to sign overseas contracts early in the year before the market is flooded, and senior All Blacks invariably hold on to play one more before leaving.
A look at the players who left via the excellent Herald graphics should serve as a reminder of the quality of those who graced rugby fields around the Southern Hemisphere without being selected for the All Blacks.
In some cases they weren't quite good enough and in others they left before giving themselves a proper chance. For example, Dan Bowden, an excellent first-five who was superb for the Crusaders in 2010 as Dan Carter's back-up and who could play second-five too, may not have expected to have the opportunities he received for the red and blacks in 2010, or the achieve the form that he did, and left for England at the height of his powers.
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Bowden probably would have been an All Black in 2011 given the injuries to Carter and Aaron Cruden but you can only make a decision on the information you have at the time and the important thing is to stick with it. As Bowden's Crusaders teammate Michael Paterson, a talented loose forward who decided to sign with Cardiff rather than chase an All Black jersey that same year (and he probably would have got one too), said: "At the end of the day, I had to put a mark in the sand and I have just run with it".
For some the money available overseas is too good to turn down, but for others a change in scenery is just as attractive. The study shows that the vast majority of players who leave are aged between 25 and 29.
That's probably no surprise either; much like other Kiwis who want an OE, most of whom are relatively ambitious and motivated, the Super Rugby players in that age bracket have exactly the same qualities.
Which brings us to the inevitable conclusion: the numbers leaving these shores to pursue careers overseas would be far higher should those players continue to be available for the All Blacks.
New Zealand Rugby can't compete with the money available or the change in scenery. Not everyone has the desire to stay and fight for it but the black jersey remains a pretty compelling prize and the numbers prove it.