The punting graveyard is full of those who backed beaten favourites at $1.70 and $2.60 at their previous starts, but that could be misleading tomorrow.
Prom Queen and Kawi look great chances to pick up the features at Ellerslie and Trentham. Both had reasonable excuses last time even though punters paid a big price.
Kawi could finish only third in the group two at Tauranga last start, making it his fourth beaten performance this preparation, but you can make a case he is much better placed in tomorrow's $200,000 group one Rydges.
The Tauranga effort almost suggested Kawi was not happy in the more turning circuit that has found his best form.
Jason Waddell pointed him at a gap towards the middle of the track at the top of the home straight, but appeared to float for 120m, bleeding his momentum. Once balanced again he made ground into a handy third and was particularly strong through the line and for 200m beyond it.
Trentham is a much wider and open track and Kawi has been shown to advantage there previously.
Another factor in his favour is that Miss Wilson is going to have to go forward from her outside No11 barrier and will lead with a decent pace almost guaranteed. There is a good run down the back straight from the 1600m start at Trentham and Miss Wilson should get across without using too much fuel. She fights hard and should be a must for the multiple bettors.
Sensible Princess, following her Pukekohe victory and Coldplay are right in this contest.
The general opinion is the 1600m distance brought Prom Queen undone in the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton last start, but this column does not totally agreed with that.
She was beaten at the 400m when she dived through to the lead soon after the home turn and it needs to be acknowledged she had run only 1200m at that point.
After 1200m in each of her eight wins she had always been well clear of the opposition.
Regardless, she drops back to 1400m in the $70,000 Hynds Holdings Bonecrusher Stakes and despite copping the No10 gate in an 11-horse field, she should be able to cross them and get to the rail.
Trainer Kenny Rae is happy with the way the speed machine has come through her South Island campaign and the TAB bookies are taking no chances with a $2 quote.
Florence Jean is right in the race from an inside gate and Hard Merchandize and Spring Heat have claims.
● Asama Blue has an opportunity at Matamata today to add another winning strike to her record before beginning the second phase of her career.
The well-related Fastnet Rock mare, who was successful last time out at Awapuni, will step out in the Bay Insurance & Dawson Insurance Benchmark Rating 70 (1600m) and will be ridden by Danielle Johnson.
"She's in foal to Tavistock and that often gives them a natural lift so we feel that she's going to be pretty competitive again," said part-owner Sir Peter Vela's racing manager Garry Cossey.
- additional reporting NZ Racing Desk