The two would certainly have fought out the finish last year but for The Big Opal's rider Matthew Gillies losing his stirrup irons at a fence around the 1200m when the horse slipped badly on landing. The Big Opal was still in contention approaching the last, but horse and rider were exhausted from jumping three fences virtually bareback and crashed.
You can make the case little would have separated the pair but for the mishap at the 1200m. With The Big Opal coming into this 2kg lighter than Upper Cut, something seemingly as simple as that on paper will be the difference. You can also argue The Big Opal is slightly improved in terms of toughness from 12 months ago.
Upper Cut's trainer Mark Oulaghan holds the record at five victories in this race - testament to his ability to get his horses tough and hard on the right day. Handsome runs a poor second to sheer grit in this race and there will not be a grittier horse out there tomorrow.
Common sense tells you The Big Opal, but out and out courage is not always the bed partner of common sense. It should be a great contest.
Last year Upper Cut was ridden by Australian Paul Hamblin, this time by local Shaun Phelan. The Big Opal also has a change with Shaun Fannin holding the reins.
High Forty knows how to win this race and victory would be a big result for his part owner and trainer Brian Anderton, who chases Mark Oulaghan with four previous wins in the race.
Another sidelight to that - Anderton stood Upper Cut's sire Yamanin Vital at stud.
Mr Mor nearly tore this race off Upper Cut last year and is not the worst chance. He was making ground late in the lead-up Koral last week and will appreciate the extra distance.
He won't be voting in the upcoming elections, but is nearly old enough.
●Hunterville trainers Adrian and Harry Bull are in a quandary as to which race their Winter Cup winner Nashville should line up in at Riccarton tomorrow.
The Darci Brahma gelding is currently in the fields for the Millennium Hotels and Resorts Premier Open 1400 and the Christchurch Casino Winter Classic over 1800m.
Adrian Bull highlighted weight as the main reason the multiple group one winner still remains in both and would make a decision by tonight.
"The weight relief in one field is the main reason," Bull said. "He only gets 55.5kg with a claim (in the 1400m). The other one he gets 60kg and there are a few good horses on 53kg."
Some of those horses include the Ben Ropiha-trained Doiknowyou, who was runner-up to Nashville in the Winter Cup last start, and Platinum Command who placed fourth. "We'll just see if the track gets any worse," Bull said. "If it does we would probably lean toward the lighter weight race."
Pukekohe picks
Good kick-off: Suliman, R2, Pukekohe. Can give Jason Waddell the perfect jump start to resume his riding career after surgery.
Drop in class: On Parole, R3, Pukekohe. Will find this R75 a lot easier than the open class task last start.
Difficult but achievable: Liquid Inspiration, R4, Pukekohe. Winning three of your first four is never easy, but only a good one stopped a winning streak of three last start.