Rock Diva (left) is a chance in the Wellfield NZ Oaks at Trentham today. Photo / Richard Robinson
Ididit's wet track form is such that she has to appeal as a shining prospect at Te Rapa today.
The versatile Matamata mare has had one start back following a break, finishing a close fifth to Antonio Lombardo on her home track three weeks ago and should be very fit for this race (R6). She has had two starts on a slow track for a win and three on the heavy for two wins and a placing.
Iamishwara has very good slow track form and will find this easier than in Nashville's group one at Otaki last start.
From his only four starts Rocky Road (No1, R1) has had one attempt on a slow surface for a placing. On that basis he has to rate in the opening line-up. So does Ernie (No5) who didn't look that happy on a very firm surface on this track last start. Illuminati (No8) and Sakhee's Star (No10) are musts for multiple bettors.
All's Fair (No8, R2) has yet to be tried on a rain-affected surface like he's almost certain to get today, but being by Magic Albert from a Postponed mare he must be given the opportunity to shine. The talented The Last Shower just edged him out at Ellerslie last week, which is great form for this race. Classcoroc (No5) has winning form with a bit of rain around and so has Saved By The Bell (No2). Like a lot of races on the programme, this is tricky because of the rain.
With a win and two placings in slow conditions, Ngatira Gold (No4, R3) has to rate highly. She has not raced since late October, but that may not be enough to stand in her way. Darting (No8) is going to start close to favourite, but she has had three starts on rain affected footing for nothing and might be worth the risk of leaving her out. Von Krumm (No3) and Fraajilistic (No2) are classy.
Coriander (No5, R4) did well to hold on for second after kicking clear of the field on the home bend at Ellerslie last start. She has been placed on this track, which is always a good sign. War Story (No2) looks the type to manage the conditions.
Dufellforte (No7, R5) looked good in only three juvenile starts last season. He hasn't raced for close on a year, but is from a stable that can get them fit first time up following a break. Neutron Star (No10) won on a slow track last season and has looked good in two minor placings this time back. Pokuru Asif (No2) made a big impression winning on debut at Otaki three weeks ago, but it is never easy on green horses coming off a debut win and tackling older, experienced horses. He does a bit wrong and from a wide gate he has plenty to overcome here.
Biggin Hill (No4, R7) had a gut-buster when resuming with a second place at Ellerslie last start. Provided that has not taken the edge off him he should be difficult to manage here. He likes this 1400m distance and has won and been placed in slow conditions. Torricella (No5) has good wet track form. Rebound (No2) and Zero Tua Hundred (No3) are dangers.
Things went wrong for Delveen (No5, R9) at Ellerslie last start and her unplaced run is best forgotten. Her close second there at her previous is the race to judge her on here. She has won on this course and in heavy footing and looks a bit better than some of these. Bechtolsheimer (No8) got home strongly into fifth last start after being held up 400m out. Her wet track form looks good. She's Samashing (No9) has started what should be a top run of form.
Last night it was starting to look as though rain may not hit Wellington until after the races late this afternoon, but tropical storms are unpredictable, so anything could happen.
Assuming the footing will be okay, Miss Selby (No2, R9) and Rock Diva (No4) look the pair most likely to divide the spoils in the Oaks, although the chances do not end there. Rock Diva is a true stayer and the 2500m is going to suit.
The best bet on the day looks to be southern sprinter Natuzzi (No2, R8), a $3.80 chance with the TAB yesterday. He can handle any type of footing, so rain will not upset his chances. Forget his unbeaten performance last start, he was caught in traffic throughout.
That last-start Trentham win by Mangaroa Mini (No5, R6) was no fluke.
She likes the big open spaces and Trentham suits her perfectly.