If his last-start Ellerslie second is a good guide, Elbaz should be a great bet in Race 8 at Te Rapa today.
Elbaz produced a remarkable performance to get up for second behind impressive winner Sirani after missing the start by six lengths and tailing the field for the first half of the race.
Had the race been won by something less talented than Sirani, Elbaz would have gone close.
He needs only to begin with the rest of the field to be very difficult to contain.
Dunstan Final winner Seaflyte hadn't run for four weeks when he contested Elbaz's race last start and did well to finish fourth. He is a rugged, staying type and will be competitive late in this race.
Saheel (No2, R1) finally got the luck she deserved when she won easily at Awapuni last start. She goes up 2kg, which will not be easy for her, but she has a touch of class and will go close. Mallinson Road (No1) comes in fresh and might race well in that state.
Capacia (No4, R2) is dropping way down in class here after last running in the Rich Hill Mile behind La Etoile. She raced better in that than her seventh place might suggest - she was just 2.1 lengths from the winner, and makes a lot of appeal here. Dawn Ghost (No8) failed at Trentham last start, but that can probably be put down to the rain-affected track. She was super impressive winning the time before and with Ethan Dalley taking 3kg off her 54kg, she comes into this race on a lovely level.
If Fazzle (No5, R3) produces anything like the sprint she used to win at Ellerslie last start she is going to be difficult to contain today. That was a truly stunning effort after looking to be out of the race on the home bend. Sanduree (No1) is going to benefit from the 3kg apprentice allowance.
The $100,000 Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is massively competitive. If you get this trifecta right you'll do well. Trouble is you might have to go for a spread because Katie Lee (No1, R5), KeepThe Peace (No2), Veronica Franco (No3), Obsession (No6) and November Rain (No9) are musts.
November Rain is the interesting runner. She is only just hitting her best form and was huge in flashing home late to be a close third to Joey Massino at Trentham. The suggestion from that race is that the step to 2000m this time will suit perfectly.
The two group one features will be great races, but this one is just as interesting and these fillies head towards the Oaks at Trentham. Don't miss it.
The $200,000 Darci Brahma Stakes is a stunner in that last year's quinella result of MacO'Reilly (No1, R7) and Tell A Tale (No3) are strong chances again mixed with class 3-year-old Monaco Consul (No9), Passchendaele (No7) and Veloce Bella (No5) all capable of winning.
Tell A Tale had follow-me all over him with his fourth placing in the Thorndon Mile, a race he pretty much blew when he dropped right off the bunch in the first 100m.
It was a remarkable effort to finish less than one length from the winner Wall Street and he had to have won if he had stayed in touch. The 2000m here suits better and he looks very difficult to beat if he gets away cleanly with the opposition.
MacO'Reilly is back to his best that has seen him unbeaten in five attempts at this 2000m. Passchendaele is all class. She is badly off under the weight-for-age scale, but is so talented that may not be enough to stop her.
There is a general feeling Mufhasa (No2, R9) is racing below his best form, but it might pay to ignore that. He was not suited by the weight scale in the Railway two back and last start was upset by the wet Trentham track in the Telegraph.
This is much more his sort of race and he is ideally suited to the weight-for-age scale. If he doesn't do something today you can probably ignore him for the rest of this campaign.
The performance of Wealth Princess (No12) will be interesting because as much as Mufhasa is ideally suited by the weight scale, Wealth Princess is totally disadvantaged.
She carried 52kg in the Telegraph, in which she was beaten out of the money, and has 57kg here. She is that talented she should still be considered.
She hadn't been beaten before the Telegraph and is three from three on this Te Rapa course. Kiloton (No8) has not disgraced himself with fourths in the Railway and Telegraph and looks to have trained on well. He is right in this.
The last is a difficult race. Lady Chaparral (No13, R10) won well enough in maidens to be considered a chance in her step-up in class.
Limoux (No16) might be the upsetter. She was narrowly beaten by Keep The Peace at the barrier trials.
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