Netball: Staying alive - how the Mystics can advance

NSW Swifts player Vanessa Ware (left) and Temepara George tangle during the Mystics' 54-48 loss last weekend to the Australians. Photo / Steven McNichol

The Northern Mystics' ANZ Championship play-off hopes took a massive dive south after the weekend's loss to the NSW Swifts.

Then, when the Waikato/Bay of Plenty Magic slumped to a one-goal loss to the Queensland Firebirds on Monday night, it looked as if it was the final nail in the coffin for their Kiwi rivals.

But the Mystics aren't willing to concede their season just yet, so we look at what needs to happen for them to make the play-offs for the first time.

First, the Mystics need to win all three of their remaining games: West Coast Fever (h), Southern Steel (h) and Canterbury Tactix (a). This would boost them to 16 points (8 wins, 5 losses).

In the past couple of seasons 16 points have been enough to scrape in to the semifinals, but should the Auckland side finish tied on points with another team, they are likely to be edged out on goal percentage.

The Mystics therefore need to rely on a few other results going their way.

They need the Vixens and Firebirds to each drop a game, and for the Steel to lose two of their last three (one of those being against the Mystics in round 13).

In the Vixens' case you'd say that's almost guaranteed - on their current form they don't look capable of beating anyone.

If the Mystics beat the Steel, it would pretty much draw a line through the Southerners' hopes as well as they then have to face the table-topping NSW Swifts in Sydney in the final round.

But the Firebirds have a fairly straightforward run in to the play-offs with games against the Pulse, Tactix and Fever over the next three weeks. With that in mind the Queensland side are now the favourites to sneak in to the top four.

But the Mystics can't do much to halt the Firebirds' progress. So for now, all they can do is focus on winning their own games. Here's what they need to do:

West Coast Fever, tomorrow, North Shore Events Centre

Of all the Kiwi sides, the Mystics have one of the worst records against Australian teams.

In nearly three full seasons the Auckland side have just one win over an Australian franchise - that came in round one this year against the Adelaide Thunderbirds.

Even the Central Pulse managed to notch up a victory over an Aussie team before the Mystics did, when they picked up their maiden win over the NSW Swifts in round 13 last season.

But the Mystics have a good chance of improving on their dire record against the Fever tomorrow.

The Fever, who are the lowest-ranked Australian side, make the long journey from Perth today after a short turnaround from Monday night's win against the Tactix.

The Mystics will need to take a huge step up from last weekend's performance against the Swifts, though. The Auckland side did not look comfortable against the Australian style of defence, and struggled to cope well with their close marking and strong hands-over pressure.

Mystics coach Te Aroha Keenan said she was disappointed with her side's inability to do the work off the ball last weekend, allowing the Swifts to slow up their timing and delivery of ball into the shooting circle.

The Mystics can expect the Fever to employ a similar defensive gameplan tomorrow and will need to be much better prepared for this approach.

Southern Steel, Monday June 14, Trusts Stadium

This is going to be the big one. The round 12 clash between the Mystics and Steel is shaping up to be vital to both side's chances of making it through to the top four.

The Steel are in fourth position on the ladder, one win ahead of the Mystics. Provided both sides win their round 12 matches this weekend, a loss to their Auckland rivals would put them back on equal footing again.

The Mystics got the better of the Steel in their last meeting in Invercargill in round 8, but it was a far from convincing performance from the visitors.

And given the Steel have since come into some strong form, knocking over the Magic and the Melbourne Vixens over the past two weeks, they will probably head into this match as the favourites.

In that round 8 clash, the Mystics defence struggled with the safe, patient approach of the Steel and became frustrated with their inability to turn over much ball.

So, the Auckland side will need to be equally frugal with their turnover rate against the Steel, ensuring they make the most of their possession and capitalise on any turnover ball.

Canterbury Tactix, Saturday June 20, Westpac Stadium, Christchurch

While the Tactix are locked in a battle with the Central Pulse to avoid collecting the wooden spoon, the Mystics will be well advised not to take the Canterbury side lightly.

When their timing is on, the Tactix move the ball through court better than most other teams in the league. Their speed and precision are breathtaking to watch at times. But with a very inexperienced line-up, when things start going wrong, they go very, very wrong.

The Mystics will need to exploit the inexperience of their opposition. The key may be to put pressure on the Tactix' young shooting pairing of Ellen Halpenny and Anna Thompson.

Both are confidence players, once they start missing they find it hard to get themselves back in the game. And once they start misfiring, the attacking players around them soon lose confidence and the entire attack end disintegrates.