KEY POINTS:
We're back to where the season began for the Waikato/Bay of Plenty Magic and the Adelaide Thunderbirds. And for one side, Monday night's preliminary final will be where their season ends as well.
The Magic kicked off their ANZ Championship season with a 46-42 win over the Thunderbirds.
Now, 14 rounds on they meet again, with a spot in the grand final against the NSW Swifts on the line.
But if a week is a long time in sport, then 14 weeks is an eternity, so very little can be taken from the opening round meeting between the two sides.
Thunderbirds coach Jane Woodlands believes her side have improved exponentially across the course of the season. There have been personnel changes to the Thunderbirds' run-on side during that time as well. Lanky shooter Kate Beveridge now seems to be preferred over ex-international Kristen Hughes in the goal-shoot bib, while Emily Beaton had forced her way in to the starting wing-attack spot in place of Alex Clarke. In the defensive end Woodlands has tended to switch Mo'onia Gerrard and Bianca Reddy back and forth between the wing and goal defence positions depending on the opposition.
Woodlands also believes her side's tougher road to the play-offs puts the Thunderbirds in a strong frame of mind mentally for Monday's do-or-die clash. The quirks in the one and half round draw system have meant the Thunderbirds have had to play the higher-ranked Aussie teams twice during the round-robin, while the Magic have only met them once.
With the competition for play-off spots so tight between the Australian teams, the Thunderbirds have faced a must-win scenario for the past five or six weeks. While the Thunderbirds have got the wins when it counted, they have also at times been horribly inconsistent.
Likewise the Magic have been plagued by inconsistency this season, with last week's semifinal loss against the NSW Swifts a prime example. In fact, their record since round 10 reads win - loss - win - loss - win - loss.
You can go round in circles trying to predict the outcome of this one, so we've canvassed some of the country's top coaches to find out their thoughts on the match. But, as it turns out, even some of them are sitting on the fence when it comes to picking a winner.
Yvonne Willering
Northern Mystics:
Veteran coach Willering has been around long enough to know that anything can happen at finals time, so she still can't settle on a favourite.
But she is certain it will be a very tight contest.
She said while the Magic line-up is groaning with Silver Ferns, the Thunderbirds on their day are capable of upsetting any team in the league.
"On paper, the Magic should win it, but one thing about the Thunderbirds is that when they put it all together, they can be very hard to beat," said Willering.
Willering also believes the prospect of playing away from home in front of 3500 one-eyed Magic supporters won't faze the Thunderbirds too much.
"The Magic may have the home advantage, but the Australian teams don't worry about that sort of thing.
"They actually travel pretty well in comparison," she said.
Willering highlighted the Magic's attacking third as where the match will be won and lost for the home side.
She said both Irene van Dyk and Maria Tutaia need to be on song for the Magic to come out on top.
"Their defensive circle has been consistent throughout the whole competition, so I guess a lot will depend on how their attack end apply themselves. And a lot comes down to individual responsibility."
Robyn Broughton
Southern Steel:
Legendary coach Broughton believes if the Magic can remain focused on their performance rather than the actual outcome, they will come out on top.
Her advice for the Waikato side is simple.
"Look, they just need to get out there and play theirnatural game."
Helen Mahon-Stroud
Canterbury Tactix:
Mahon-Stroud was confident of a Magic win last weekend against the Swifts, and while it wasn't to be, she's predicting the Waikato side will get there this time.
"There were a couple of chinks in the Magic's armour, which was unfortunate, but I'm expecting they would have sorted it out during the week," she said.
The Thunderbirds play an aggressive style of defence and Mahon-Stroud expects given the intensity of the match the visitors will lift the physicality up a notch on Monday.
She said the Magic need to be prepared for this approach and try not to get bogged down in to an arm wrestle.
"The Magic are going to have to really play smart netball down their attacking end and be prepared for the physicality of the Thunderbirds and play above it."
