The All Blacks were too good for the Springboks in their last outing in July. Photosport
The All Blacks were too good for the Springboks in their last outing in July. Photosport
OPINION
There’s undoubtedly a correlation between the All Blacks’ four victories in 2023 and the absence of any yellow cards.
Just as there is a correlation between Ireland’s six victories in 2023 and the absence of any yellow cards.
What’s become undeniable since World Rugby increased its effortsto punish high tacklers, is that teams who consistently get their technique right and hold their discipline, are the teams most likely to consistently win.
This is being taken as fact by the All Blacks, who understand entirely that if they are to win this World Cup, they will need their discipline to be immaculate: to maintain this newfound ability to stay on the right side of the officials.
There’s been many a thesis written to explain their transformation in the last 12 months, but none have focused hard enough on the importance of cleaning up their tackle technique and making better decisions in and around the contact area.
The All Blacks didn’t lose the plot between 2019 and 2022, but they certainly frayed around the edges in terms of their discipline and were typically among the most carded major teams.
They picked up a red card in each of those four years and lost three of those four tests where they had a man sent-off.
The exception was in 2021, but only because Jordie Barrett (whose card was rescinded after the game) was allowed to be replaced after 20 minutes.
That the All Blacks have won all four tests this year and avoided picking up any cards is testament to the focus they have placed on dropping their body heights and rigorously applying high-end technique in the contact zones.
Test rugby is fast, dynamic and brutal – and so no team can realistically eliminate all risk of being carded.
But the All Blacks are conscious that they can control their fate to a large degree by ensuring they don’t get caught upright in contact, or lead with their shoulders or fail to wrap their arms.
The All Blacks. Photo / Getty Images
“There have been a lot of cards, but the rules are pretty obvious,” All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan observed this week in London.
“You have just got to stay away from the head. You have got to get your tackle technique right and live under the ball. You have still got to be dominant though.”
Cards are killers and the numbers show that if the All Blacks can’t keep all their players on the park for the full 80- minutes, that may be enough to topple them out of the World Cup.
That’s how tight big games have become – one yellow card may inflict insurmountable damage, while picking up a red card in a big knock-out game will almost certainly be enough to send the All Blacks hurtling out of the tournament.
Discipline is the single most powerful factor in determining who will win and almost inevitable that the eventual champions in France will be the team with the cleanest disciplinary record.
The proof of this pudding sits with Ireland, who are the best team in the world, and also the cleanest.
Their disciplinary record almost tells the story of why they have been able to climb to and stay at number one in the world.
In their last 22 tests, stretching back to June 2021, they have picked up just two yellow cards.
France, who throughout 2021 and 2022 were vying with Ireland for that top spot, were almost as well-disciplined, picking up one yellow and one red over that period.
That they have slipped a little in 2023, losing to Ireland in the Six Nations and then a warm-up fixture to Scotland a few weeks ago, could be traced to failing to maintain their tackle standards.
In the Six Nations they picked up two yellow cards and a red.
Equally telling is the All Blacks disciplinary record and how that has impacted their results.
In 2021 and 2022 they played 29 tests and were shown 13 yellows and three reds. They won 21, lost seven and drew one for a 72 per cent win ratio.
More illustrative, however, of how impactful a poorly timed or executed tackle can be, is that in four of the tests in which they lost, they were shown either a yellow or red card, and on one occasion both.
The lack of discipline the All Blacks showed in the defeats to Ireland in 2021 and then in the second and third tests of 2022, was crippling.
When they lost to France in 2021, there was an untimely yellow card shown to Ardie Savea that opened the door for the home side to regain the momentum and charge home with the win, while England’s three tries in the last 10 minutes at Twickenham in 2022 to salvage an unlikely draw, came when the All Blacks only had 14 men on the field.
Of all the things the All Blacks have to get right at this World Cup, none is more important than lowering their body heights and producing relentlessly good tackle technique.
Not only do the historic numbers clearly demonstrate the importance of not picking up cards, but so too have the trials and tribulations of England in the last few weeks, highlighted the damage that can be self-inflicted by lazy or bad tackle technique.
England have seen Owen Farrell and Billy Vunipola red carded in recent weeks, both picking up three-match suspensions that will keep them out of the first two pool rounds.
“That’s on every team’s mind, there’s no doubt,” All Blacks head coach Ian Foster said when he was asked how high a priority it was for his side to retain their discipline both at Twickenham in their final match before the World Cup and indeed at the tournament.
“You only have to go back to the last World Cup to see how cards dominated the pool stages, particularly,” he said.
“The connection between cards and the judiciary…you’ve got to know it’s pretty hard to escape that at the moment.
“But if you define the word ‘discipline’ as ‘technique’, we can control that. We’re working hard to make sure our technique is as good as it needs to be.
“As a coach and a player you want something you can control. We’re not helpless in this situation. We need to do what we need to do to minimise the risk.”
