Reports out of Wales suggest South African Super Rugby sides will join the European PRO14 competition
When it comes to stories about the future of Super Rugby it is best to believe anything is possible but understand that barely a fraction of what is floated is probable.
The bigger the headline the smaller the grain of truth is the rule of thumb and the savvy willunderstand why this is the case.
Super Rugby is built on the conflicted foundation that rivals have to be allies and allies never stop being rivals.
The member nations say they believe they are stronger if they stand together, that Super Rugby will be worth more if they work transparently and cohesively for the greater good.
Yet for all the assurances and promises of unity, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa know their respective needs and aspirations are not compatible and therefore they worry that there are self-interested agendas being pursued in secret.
The relationship has long carried an element of paranoia - enough to cultivate rumour and speculation.
Typically their fears that one of their partners is plotting to stab them in the back have been unfounded.
Super Rugby remains largely what it was when it started out in 1996 - a cross-border competition featuring the best professional sides from New Zealand, South Africa, and Australia.
The format has changed and Argentina and Japan have joined, but the alliance has survived and while Super Rugby has known its share of bad, 22 years on and the three founding partners will all say Super Rugby has worked for them.
And as Sanzaar chief executive Andy Marinos said earlier this week, executives from New Zealand, South Africa and Australia have made it clear they are committed to remain part of Super Rugby when the current broadcast deal expires at the end of 2020.
While it is possible that South Africa is being duplicitous and saying they are committed to staying in Super Rugby while considering a shift to Europe, it is probable that's not true.
Sanzaar CEO Andy Marinos. Photo / Getty
What does strike as probable is that the South Africa Rugby Union, having seen how well the Cheetahs and Kings have integrated into Europe's ProD14, are now hoping they can gain entry into that league for more of their teams.
That doesn't mean they are pulling out of Super Rugby. Nor is it likely that any of their four current Super Rugby outfits - Sharks, Lions, Stormers or Bulls - will be upping sticks and throwing their lot in with the Celts and Italians.
It probably means SARU have every intention of keeping the Sharks, Stormers, Lions, and Bulls in Super Rugby while they try to negotiate a deal where the likes of the Pumas and Griquas join the ProD league.
SARU have washed up in the near perfect world where they have a provincial presence in both hemispheres which is a viable and sustainable proposition.
But they can only have an international presence in one hemisphere and one competition, and they only have one option there - which is the Rugby Championship.
The Six Nations have no desire to become seven and besides, while there may be an element of ambivalence in some quarters of South Africa towards Super Rugby, the desire to see the All Blacks every year remains fierce.
And the only way SARU can keep that option open is to commit to Super Rugby as New Zealand are hardly going to hold the door open for the Springboks if South Africa cut and run from Super Rugby.
Super Rugby is an endless world of possibilities but much narrower in focus when it comes to probabilities.
The next phase of Super Rugby may see yet more tweaks in format, perhaps a new team from the Pacific and a handful of games in North America and other targeted territories but at its heart, it will remain a provincial competition featuring teams from New Zealand, Australia and South Africa.
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