Gregor Paul: How to fix the All Blacks' one area of uncertainty

Rieko Ioane of the All Blacks celebrates scoring a try with TJ Perenara of the All Blacks during The Rugby Championship match. Photo / Getty Images.

OPINION

Timing used to be such a problem for the All Blacks. There was a period of 20 years when they just couldn't get it right – couldn't get in sync with the World Cup cycle.

A nation blessed with an almost belligerent desire to forge its own path and do things its own way on the rugby field had a hard time working out that it did need to conform to one universal wisdom about coming down the home stretch at a gallop.

New Zealand simply didn't get or chose to wilfully ignore what everyone could see, which is that to win a World Cup, it is mostly about timing and arriving at the tournament with a strong element of certainty and a hint of more to come.

For 20 years between 1987 and 2007, the All Blacks were like some crazy orchestra that knew how to make beautiful music but strangely chose to play it all out of time.

Their great years fell randomly – 1988, 1997, 2006 - and at four successive tournaments they arrived as a side in regression mode, their best rugby behind them and undeniable accusations that they had peaked too soon.

It took an inordinately long time for the penny to drop that the secret to World Cups is ensuring that a team has a level of consistency, and familiarity coming in, but not so much that it has grown stale and incapable of growth or surprise.

While there have been previous World Cup winners, such as South Africa in 2019 and the All Blacks in 2011, who were in a virtual state of chaos at this corresponding point in those respective cycles, there is no evidential basis to say that the best path to success is one that contains a great fall followed by a monumental rise.

The All Blacks went through 2013 undefeated and still arrived in England two years later a better team, just as the English in 2001 were a good side in 2001 but a great side by 2003.

It's important to understand the distinction between form and growth potential and this is what makes the team the All Blacks have picked to play Ireland such an intriguing 2023 World Cup proposition.

Regardless of the result in Dublin or indeed next week in Paris, there's no question this All Blacks team has significant growth potential.

The test against Ireland will provide a moment-in-time gauge to see how far along their development curve they are, but with some certainty it's possible to predict already that they are not anywhere near the upper limit of their potential.

This is not a team built on old legs destined to slow or give up down the home straight and it's also a team that will welcome back Aaron Smith and Sam Cane.

There's no sense of this team being built on sand as the All Blacks of 1997 were, knowing that so many key players were never going to make it to 1999.

Sam Whitelock and Dane Coles have the most miles on the clock, but would anyone be willing to bet that one or both will suddenly hit the wall between now and 2023?

And even if one or both do, there is strength in depth at hooker to replace Coles and enough time for Scott Barrett to emerge as the genuine, world class force he often hints he could be.

It's a team that is starting to have a settled feel to it with long established combinations at the core and some promising new ones that have developed this year.

TJ Perenara of New Zealand reacts during the Autumn International match between Wales and New Zealand at Principality Stadium. Photo / Getty Images.

It doesn't yet have an indisputable loose forward combination, but there is a real sense it is closing in on one and the right options to provide the variation.

It's possible to peer into next year and see the names Ethan Blackadder, Cane and Ardie Savea trotted out, in much the same way that Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw and Kieran Read were the combination of choice between 2010 and 2015.

The one true area of uncertainty remains the midfield, which has felt like the All Blacks for the last two years have been chucking things at the wall to see if anything might stick.

It is too important an area for this approach to continue and while Anton Lienert-Brown may not prove to be the longer-term answer at No 12, the time has come for the All Blacks to commit to Rieko Ioane as their preferred centre.

Ioane will always have a lobby pushing for him to stay on the wing where his pace, power and propensity to back himself appear best suited.

But Ioane, who is only 24 despite having seemingly been around forever, has done enough to say that of all the candidates who have played in the No 13 jersey these last few years, he's the one in whom Ian Foster should now invest all his energy trying to refine into a world class operator.

While there are gaps in Ioane's skill-set and the occasional sense he lacks a natural affinity for the role, the subtleties he needs to support his obvious line-breaking gifts are only going to develop through time in the job.

Ioane has work to do on both the sharpness and timing of his distribution just as he's got to improve his defensive positioning.

These are skills that become instinctive only through practical application; by being exposed to the impossible to replicate pressures of a test match and if someone else is given that time, are they going to be a more compelling prospect than Ioane by 2023?

It may take yet more shuffling through the options at No 12 to build a settled combination, but if the All Blacks are going to peak at the right time in this cycle, they have to commit to Ioane at centre now.

Locking in Ioane at centre, if nothing else, will provide the back three with the chance to build their understanding of his running lines and distribution tendencies and develop their individual and collective attacking patterns around his.

This All Blacks team can continue to surge along its growth curve, but just how far may be tied up in the decisions which are made about Ioane.