Liberato Cacace celebrates scoring for the All Whites. Photo / Photosport
Liberato Cacace celebrates scoring for the All Whites. Photo / Photosport
OPINION:
1. If they win they make the World Cup
Since this is the type of occasion that attracts casual fans, and since this is the type of column that provides cutting-edge analysis, let's make one thing clear.
If the All Whites win next Wednesday's World Cup qualifier, they willqualify for the World Cup.
It won't be easy, facing a Costa Rica side ranked 31st in the world, but it's long been a difficult proposition for New Zealand. There are more countries entered in World Cup qualifying than in the United Nations, and most of them like football a lot more than we do.
The All Whites have made it only twice, so let's analyse some extremely scientific data to see just how rare a win next week would be.
New Zealand have won 55 Olympic gold medals. Therefore, the All Whites merely reaching a World Cup is like winning 27.5 Olympic gold medals. Don't question this.
Using similarly unimpeachable mathematics, qualifying is like claiming 79.5 Commonwealth Games gold medals, like lifting two America's Cups, like collecting somewhere between 600 and 800 rowing world championship medals.
This year, though, thanks to the novel coronavirus known as Covid-19, qualifying for the World Cup is not quite as difficult as some mathematicians would have you believe.
Instead of being forced to navigate a fraught two-leg playoff, playing one match in the daunting atmosphere of San José and the other in the slightly less daunting atmosphere of Wellington, the golden ticket will be determined on a single sweaty night in Doha.
The fixture crunch created by the pandemic consolidates the drama - and advantages the All Whites. Danny Hay's team are good and getting better, but Costa Rica are superior and would almost certainly prevail in a home-and-away tie.
In a one-off match, though, particularly at a neutral venue in the desert, anything can happen. That's the beauty of the beautiful game: bad teams beat good teams all the time. The All Whites aren't bad, but the fewer games in South America, the far greater their chances.
All Whites coach Danny Hay. Photo / Photosport
3. Rescind the invitation
Groucho Marx one said: "I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member."
Apparently, anyway. I don't know who Groucho Marx is. But the man makes a good point, a salient one to consider ahead of next week.
This will be the last time the All Whites encounter such a perilous qualification path. Starting from 2026 and continuing until we render the planet uninhabitable, Fifa in its money-grabbing wisdom will expand the World Cup and welcome permanently to the club the likes of us.
In four years' time, forget the tension of a playoff, the Oceania champions will waltz straight into the main event. And although that may sound appealing, it does remove the romance.
Some of the great New Zealand sporting moments came in previously daunting qualification campaigns: the Bahrain game, of course, and the road to Spain my parents always go on about.
Those moments won't be repeated, replaced instead by high-stakes encounters with inferior Pacific Island opposition, teams whose development won't be helped by New Zealand continuing to dominate the region.
This clash with Costa Rica could be our last chance to play the qualifying underdog, before Fifa invites any old mutt to its party.
4. Shoot out? Shoot me
Those off-field concerns may matter little to the normies, so let's grab back your attention with this tantalising prospect: at about 8.30am next Wednesday, the All Whites could face a penalty shootout to earn a place in the World Cup.
Forget what lame people say about shootouts being unfair or cruel - shootouts rule. The greater the possibility for heartbreak and tears, the better for all involved.
Since the All Whites are unlikely to ever shoot out for a trophy worth winning, our World Cup fate being decided from the penalty spot is about as dramatic as football in this country can get.
Think of the intrigue. When does Chris Wood shoot, first or fifth? Can Oli Sail or Stefan Marinovic inherit Mark Paston's throne as our new penalty king? And which player can we scapegoat for missing and ruining everything for everyone?
5. They'll win our hearts
All Whites midfielder Joe Bell in action against Peru. Photo / Photosport
With apologies to the two World Cups in this country, the All Whites playing a World Cup in Qatar would easily be the year's sporting highlight.
Their potential opponents for the tournament were revealed a couple of months ago, and football types have been aroused ever since.
Four-time World Cup winners Germany. 2010 champions Spain. Really good Japan. It would be a joy to watch the All Whites get destroyed by any one of them.
Then there's our soon-to-be new Kiwi heroes themselves. You know Chris Wood, but a win over Costa Rica will create a fresh generation of footballing icons and backstories.
Did you know the dad of midfield maestro Joe Bell produced the video for Nirvana's Heart-Shaped Box? That's arguably a greater achievement than Bell making it to Qatar and winning the golden ball for player of the tournament.
What about Liberato Cacace, the Empoli fullback with the ability and pedigree to one day play for Italy, if only he hadn't been born in our capital?
There's plenty more, and plenty more hype to come in the next week. Believe it.
