Jason Pine: NZ likely to face Portugal in Hamilton

Junior All Whites forward Noah Billingsley is jubilant after scoring against Myanmar during their FIFA U-20 World Cup Group A match. Photo / Mark Mitchell.

While it's not absolutely confirmed yet, Darren Bazeley and his under-20's brains trust can start planning for Portugal.

They are almost certain to be the opponents in New Zealand's first ever knockout match at this level.

The formula for deciding who plays who in the round of 16 is based on which of the four third-placed teams advances. In the tournament rules, there is a table which shows who plays who in the event of each of the different combinations of four teams going through.

As the third-placed team in Pool A, New Zealand have only two potential opponents - Group B winners Ghana in Wellington on Wednesday or Group C winners Portugal in Hamilton on Thursday.

For the Ghana scenario to eventuate, the third-placed team in Group F (Germany, Honduras, Fiji and Uzbekistan) must advance and it's hard to see how that might happen.

At present, Germany have six points, Honduras have three with a -2 goal difference, Fiji have three with a -4 goal difference and Uzbekistan have no points. Today, Germany play Honduras and Fiji meet Uzbekistan.

There's no likely combination of results I can find that allows the third-placed team in this group to finish with enough points and a good enough goal difference to surpass the teams that are already on four points.

Portugal will be a formidable opponent for New Zealand. They've won all three pool matches comfortably, scoring ten goals in the process and conceding just one. Bazeley and co will need to get their tactics and formation absolutely spot-on to have any chance of knocking over the Europeans on Thursday night.

I'll also be interested to see how Hungary and Nigeria attack their Pool E match in New Plymouth this afternoon. A draw will see them both advance to the knockout stages and they'll be fully aware of this. If we get to the 70-minute mark and the scores are dead-locked, will they go through the motions for the remainder of the game?

It's hard to see that happening to be honest. These two sides have been among the most eye-catching of the tournament and it doesn't appear to be in their footballing DNA to sit back.

At seven o'clock tonight, the tournament will be trimmed from 24 teams to 16. Then the fun really starts.