Jason Pine: Can NZ make the knockout stages with win?

Joel Stevens of New Zealand is tackled by Kellyn Parry-Acosta of the USA during the FIFA U-20 World Cup. Photo / Getty Images.

With all 24 sides having now played two of their three pool games, it's time to crunch some numbers to assess New Zealand's chances of making the knockout stages of an under-20 World Cup for the very first time.

The top two sides in each of the six pools progress to the round of 16, along with the four best third-placed finishers.

First things first. New Zealand must beat Myanmar in Wellington tonight. Lose or draw and they're out. Only a win would give them a chance to progress.

If they win, New Zealand will move to four points in Pool A. That could theoretically see them finish second on goal difference, but they'd need to thrash Myanmar and see Ukraine equally hammered by the USA for that to happen.

Let's rule that out and say that if New Zealand beats Myanmar, they'll finish third in Pool A on four points.

Then, they'd need to wait for the other group matches to be played to see if that would be enough to secure passage into the round of 16.

To progress, New Zealand would need at least two of the other third-placed finishers to accumulate less than four points.

There are a number of ways that could happen, so let's break it down by group.

Group B
Current standings: Ghana 4, Austria 4, Argentina 1, Panama 1
Remaining games: Austria v Argentina, Panama v Ghana
Best outcome for NZ: Wins for Austria and Ghana or two drawn matches
Likelihood: Unlikely. Argentina would be favoured to beat Austria and join them on four points

Group C
Current standings: Portugal 6, Colombia 4, Senegal 1, Qatar 0
Remaining games: Senegal v Qatar, Colombia v Portugal
Best outcome for NZ: Qatar to beat or draw with Senegal
Likelihood: Unlikely. Qatar have yet to score a goal at the tournament, conceding five in two defeats

Group D
Current standings: Serbia 3, Mali 3, Uruguay 3, Mexico 3
Remaining games: Serbia v Mexico, Mali v Uruguay
Best outcome for NZ: Two result games (i.e. neither match drawn)
Likelihood: Fair. All four teams have a win and a loss after two games.

Group E
Current standings: Brazil 6, Hungary 3, Nigeria 3, Korea DPR 0
Remaining games: Hungary v Nigeria, Brazil v Korea DPR
Best outcome for NZ: A result in the Hungary v Nigeria game
Likelihood: Fair, although both sides will know a draw would see them through and may play accordingly

Group F
Current standings: Germany 6, Honduras 3, Fiji 3, Uzbekistan 0
Remaining games: Honduras v Germany, Fiji v Uzbekistan
Best outcome for NZ: Uzbekistan to beat Fiji or Germany to beat Honduras
Likelihood: Good. Although they've lost both matches, Uzbekistan would be favourites to beat minnows Fiji (even after their heroics against Honduras). The Germans should have no trouble recording a third straight win.

If more than four third-placed sides are tied on four points, the teams going through would be the ones with the best goal difference. For that reason, the more goals New Zealand can score, the better.

Let's not forget though they haven't scored any at the tournament in two games so far.

And if they should progress, who would the Junior All Whites meet in the round of 16?

Depending on the other third-placed sides to qualify, New Zealand would face either the winner of Group B in Wellington or the winner of Group C in Hamilton.

Before they can even think about that though, they must give sole focus to Myanmar tonight. It's the biggest game in many of their young careers.