Sam Malcolmson: Detail and defence keys to final victory

Argentina's Lionel Messi. Photo / AP

Opinion

Little things have every chance of winning or losing the World Cup final. But first, let's address the big things.

If I live to 100 I'll not witness another 7-1 World Cup semifinal to match Germany's demolition of a non-existent Brazilian defence. But I'm picking German joy will turn to despair.

Argentina choked the creativity out of the Netherlands, who had no backup plan when Arjen Robben was deprived of space. Lionel Messi was also contained except for a few glimpses of brilliance but Argentina were dangerous when they played wide and their wing backs will be a winning factor in the final.

With the exception of Brazil this is the final football fans wanted, between European and South American superpowers. Germany's semifinal onslaught makes them worthy favourites but history says otherwise as no European country has won a World Cup in South America.

Argentina's watertight, physically intimidating and disciplined defence will stifle Germany by getting players behind the ball as soon as the Germans have possession. The Germans have struggled against well organised defences such as the USA and Algeria. Barcelona's Javier Mascherano was the Argentine conductor in the semifinal, clamping the Dutch from his defensive midfield position. His match up with Bastian Schweinsteiger will have a huge bearing on the outcome.

There will be many terrific match-ups of course, which brings us to Lionel Messi. I don't think he will be man marked as it is impossible to contain the little master for an entire game. The Germans will instead aim to close down the service he receives.

Another key factor for the Argentinians will be the fitness of Sergio Aguero. If the marksman has survived his cameo against the Netherlands, he will pose a big threat.

The Argentina set up will not allow Germany to leap from defence to attack as they did against Brazil. While the Germans will endeavour to move the ball quickly to get Thomas Muller and Mesut Ozil in one-on-one situations with defenders, the Argentine wing backs Pablo Zabaleta and Marcos Rojo will cause the German defence greater problems. And if Angel di Maria has recovered from injury he will be another thorn in the side.

It is fascinating to contemplate how the tactical battle might play out, but little things such as lack of concentration at a set piece, not picking up an opponent tight enough, even a slip or misdirected pass often turn out to be the difference between ecstasy and agony.

Argentina have been my pick from day one. If they do win, it would provide fitting glory for the world's best player, Messi.