Fred de Jong: So, who's going to win?

Former All White Fred de Jong. Photo / Paul Estcourt

Since the first World Cup in Uruguay in 1930 there have been 18 tournaments held to crown soccer's best team. In all that time, only seven countries have lifted the World Cup trophy.

Only one team outside the current Fifa top 10, Uruguay, are among that select group. History and logic would suggest that the list of winners will not grow after the 2010 tournament.

So what are the attributes the winner will require? And who will be left standing on July 11 in the 90,000-seat Soccer City stadium in Johannesburg?

To win the World Cup requires a rock-solid defence. Names like Italy's Fabio Cannavaro and France's Marcel Desailly have stamped their mark on previous World Cups just as much as the prolific goal scorers.

Teams will need multiple options on attack. This may be in the form of top-quality strikers or superb attacking midfielders who can slice open opposition defences or score at crucial times.

Remember Zinedine Zidane's two-goal performance in the final of 1998.

The serious contenders also require an astute coach who can select the right squad and then get the best out of them. Someone who can plan and execute an effective campaign to have his team peaking at the right times.

There are eight teams that have a chance of winning based on recent performances.

I have discounted France purely on the basis of their coach, Raymond Domenech. He has had a history of unfathomable selection and tactical decisions. Omitting Karem Benzema from his provisional squad of 30 had many in France scratching their heads and muttering under their breath - again.

I would almost put Argentina in the same category. Fantastic players such as Diego Milito, scorer of Inter Milan's Champions League final winning goals, Carlos Tevez, Gonzalo Higuain and Lionel Messi, the world's best player, have been undermined by their attention-seeking, tactically inept coach, Diego Maradona. The man who single-handedly won the 1986 World Cup is now Argentina's weak link.

Portugal and the Netherlands are outside chances. They both go into the tournament with high hopes - Portugal on the shoulders of the mercurial talents of Cristiano Ronaldo, but also with support from the likes of Nani, Deco, Pepe and Ricardo Carvalho, and the Netherlands, twice-beaten finalists in 1974 and 1978, with a squad - ironically for a Dutch team - built on team spirit rather than pure ability. Wesley Schneider, Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben are world class, but the core of the side will need to work very hard to allow these three to shine.

England will be difficult to beat, but are too dependent on Wayne Rooney. Should he get injured or be otherwise nullified, the other options for coach Fabio Capello lack quality.

Germany and Italy will flatter to deceive. Both will be well organised, but lack a real cutting edge up front. The loss of Michael Ballack is huge.

Five-time winners Brazil will be very strong. Defensively, they have some of the best players in the world.

Finally - and my favourite for the title: Spain, stacked full of stars from Barcelona and Real Madrid and augmented by Liverpool's Fernando Torres. It is also the style with which they play that makes them such a force. Short passing, possession football with an ability to suffocate the life out of the opposition make them irresistible to watch.

As a Kiwi of Dutch descent, I am hoping for a Spain v Netherlands final, but a Spain v Brazil final is more realistic.

Former All White Fred de Jong will write columns for the Herald throughout the World Cup.