Facing that World Cup route is generally a road to nowhere for Oceania teams.
They have only prevailed once across five attempts (1990, 1994, 2002, 2006 and 2017) - when Australia's golden generation edged Uruguay on penalties in 2006
On the surface, facing the fourth-placed team from North or Central America is a more palatable prospect, as that confederation doesn't have the same depth, though there could be a twist.
The final stage of CONCACAF qualifying is the most competitive in years, thanks partly to the emergence of Canada, who are currently unbeaten and top the standings (16 points) after eight of 14 rounds, ahead of USA (15 points) and Mexico (14), Panama (14) and Costa Rica (9).
Mexico haven't started well, held by Canada at home then losing to Les Rouges for the first time in 45 years earlier this month.
Oceania's representative will be underdogs whoever the opposition, but facing Panama (world No 63) or Costa Rica (49) is a vastly different proposition to heavyweights like USA (12) or Mexico (14).
A similar scenario unfolded in 2013. New Zealand had expected to face Costa Rica, Honduras or Panama, but instead ended up with a trip to the Azteca Stadium.
The final piece of the jigsaw will be decided next Tuesday (NZT), when the draw and format is unveiled for the eight-nation OFC tournament in Qatar next March.
The qualifying was initially planned across a series of windows before Covid struck, and compressing that into one block has been a major challenge.
OFC's original plan was for two pools of four teams, followed by a semifinal and a final. That would necessitate five separate matchdays stretching across two-and-a-half weeks, which doesn't fit inside the current window (March 21-30).
OFC have tried to extend the window but the Herald understands that has been problematic, given the importance of that stage of the club season.
A proposed alternative format is three knockout games (quarter-final, semifinal and final), which would be logistically much easier, but that isn't believed to be favoured by the majority of Oceania nations.
NZF are concerned about the prospect of an elongated tournament, which would make it almost impossible to have their full squad for the duration, as clubs would be reluctant to release players for the best part of three weeks.
"OFC are liaising with FIFA about a window extension but whether or not that will be granted remains to be seen," NZF chief executive Andrew Pragnell told the Herald on Sunday.
"If it's not and you see a format that lands outside the window that'll throw a bunch of challenges at us. Because obviously, with a side that is fully made up of professionals, accessing those players becomes a bit of a challenge."
New Zealand would be disproportionately affected, with only a handful of overseas-based players among the other Oceania nations.
Pragnell was diplomatic but feels the sporting integrity of the competition is important, given what is at stake.
"Ensuring all teams can get their players, that's a pretty important part," said Pragnell. "For World Cup qualifiers to be played outside the window is a challenge."
