Fantasy Super Rugby: Round 12 Preview

Waisake Naholo has been the find of the season so far for astute Dream Team coaches. Photo / Getty Images

Looking at the remainder of the Dream Team Fantasy Super Rugby season, Dr Stats considers the importance of generating profit within your team and gives a run-down of the ideal money-making side so far in 2015.

One of the key elements of our game is the idea that players increase or decrease in value based in their real life performances.

An astute fantasy coach will initially construct a side that features a mix of fair-valued and under-valued players. They typically avoid high-risk options: players that will have reduced minutes this season, are injury-prone, in the midst of a selection battle, are ill-disciplined or inconsistent scorers.

If that coach manages that approach perfectly and can read a few selectors' minds, then they will end up with a squad of players that will all increase in value as the season progresses.

With this increased value comes more flexibility in your trading budget - if you make a quick $20,000 one week from an under-rated player, you can then trade them in for one which costs more but will also deliver higher scores.

Looking back on the season so far, some of the most profitable selections could easily be considered predictable.

Ardie Savea has been a Hurricanes fan-favourite for a few seasons now and was always expected to be given more minutes entering 2015. Despite a slow start, after which I myself called for owners to give up on him, Savea is averaging the most points of any back rower over the past five rounds.

While Francois Hougaard appeared plenty of times at halfback in 2014, it was signaled by Bulls management that he would be a fulltime winger entering the 2015 season. Wing is generally a more profitable fantasy position than halfback and so Hougaard has been a predictable profit-maker for owners.

Springboks first five Handre Pollard was one of the most valuable performers in our Fantasy Rugby Championship game in 2014. Now, with the full trust of his coaching staff at the Bulls, Pollard has started every game he has been fit for and has been one of the fantasy finds of the year.

James Lowe and Tim Nanai-Williams are both versatile and talented ball-runners in a Chiefs backline that loves to score points. With favourable selections, these two were always going to provide profit.

Below is the ideal, Money-Making XV so far in 2015. Keep monitoring form trends, playing time and selections to gain your team value over the coming rounds.

Front rowers:
Josh Hohneck, Highlanders, +$9,900
Dane Coles, Hurricanes, +$9,100
Keven Mealamu, Blues, +6,600

Second rowers:
Pieter-Steph Du Toit, Sharks, +$32,300
Luke Jones, Rebels, +$27,700

Back rowers:
Michael Leitch, Chiefs, +$63,900
Callum Gibbins, Hurricanes, +$52,000
Ardie Savea, Hurricanes, $51,500

Halfback:
Francois Hougaard, Bulls, +$75,400

First Five:
Handre Pollard, Bulls, $117,800

Centre/Wings:
Waisake Naholo, Highlanders, +$148,800
Sefanaia Naivalu, Rebels, +$94,500
James Lowe, Chiefs, +$79,900
Tim Nanai-Williams, Chiefs, +$65,700

Fullback:
Nehe Milner-Skudder, Hurricanes, +$101,200

TOTAL PROFIT: $936,300

Get the latest fantasy advice from Dr Stats Thursdays at 6.25pm on Radio Sport with D'Arcy Waldegrave.

On the bench:
Richie McCaw, Crusaders (out indefinitely)
Israel Dagg, Crusaders (out 1 week)
Patrick Tuipuloto, Blues (out 1 week)
Brodie Retallick, Chiefs (out 4 weeks)
Steven Kitshoff, Stormers (rested)
Eben Etzebeth, Stormers (rested)
Joe Wheeler, Highlanders (out for season)
Steven Luatua, Blues (benched)
Frank Halai, Blues (dropped)
Matt Proctor, Hurricanes (benched)
James Marshall, Hurricanes (benched)
Cornal Hendricks, Cheetahs (rested)
Johann Sadie, Cheetahs (out indefinitely)
Willie du Plessis, Cheetahs (dropped)
Danie Minnie, Cheetahs (dropped)
Ian Prior, Force (suspended 3 weeks)
Mouritz Botha, Sharks (benched)
Waylon Murray, Sharks (benched)
Jannie du Plessis, Sharks (dropped)
Franco Marais, Sharks (benched)

Top pick:
Waisake Naholo, Highlanders

Cheap pickups:
Tom Marshall, Chiefs
Ma'a Nonu, Hurricanes
Harold Vorster, Lions
Matt Hodgson, Force
Willie Britz, Cheetahs