Australia have already qualified for Rio; that means New Zealand's closest rival in the region is now Japan, who have no riders ranked in the world's top 200.
Should New Zealand win the team event in the Netherlands, they will be heading to Rio.
There is an alternative route early next year but there's a key reason New Zealand will want to knock this job off at Boekelo: it will allow them to take a reserve along with the four team members, which doesn't apply to the late qualifiers.
It gives a little wriggle room in the event of injury or illness to a horse in the leadup.
The number of riders in Rio has been trimmed from five in London in 2012 to four, with the top three scores to count.
Nicholson is embroiled in a standoff with Equestrian Sport New Zealand and currently not a member of its high performance group. That list will be re-released within the next fortnight.
But when the quality of riders available and chasing a trip to Brazil is considered, New Zealand should be well capable of nailing qualification in October.