Cricket World Cup: Is the Black Caps fast start a good thing?

Black Caps captain Brendon McCullum has led his side to four wins out of four in the World Cup. Photo / Getty Images

The Black Caps have got off to a flier in the World Cup, winning their first four games to sit top of pool A.

It's a great start, but it's worth asking whether fast beginnings are always (or ever) bellwethers of future success.

Saturday's exhilarating win over Australia lit a fuse of excitement across the country, with many people, including former players, experts, pundits and punters, daring to call New Zealand favourites to take out the tournament.

The prediction is a cautious one at the moment, but the fact the Black Caps are even being talked about in this way shows how far the team has come under Brendon McCullum's stewardship.

Given the excitement, we thought now would be a good time to place the team's World Cup achievements into historical context. Current form is probably a better indicator of likely success, but historical patterns have a habit of repeating themselves.

To keep things symmetrical, we've looked back on New Zealand's relative position after four games in the last four World Cups from 1999 through to 2011.

In only one of those tournaments had New Zealand won their first four games. That was in the West Indies in 2007, where the Black Caps went on to lose at the semifinal stage to Sri Lanka.

We then go on to look at the teams that won those tournaments and how they were tracking after four games.

New Zealand's track record

India, 2011
Game 1: New Zealand beats Kenya by 10 wickets
Game 2: New Zealand loses to Australia by 7 wickets
Game 3: New Zealand beats Zimbabwe by 10 wickets
Game 4: New Zealand beats Pakistan by 110 runs

Result:
New Zealand beats South Africa in quarterfinal by 49 runs, but loses to Sri Lanka in semifinal by five wickets.

New Zealand lost in the semifinal to Sri Lanka. Photo / Getty Images

West Indies, 2007
Game 1: New Zealand beats England by 6 wickets
Game 2: New Zealand beats Kenya by 148 runs
Game 3: New Zealand beats Canada by 114 runs
Game 4: New Zealand beats the West Indies by 7 wickets

Result:
New Zealand loses in their semifinal against Sri Lanka by 81 runs, after beating Ireland and losing to Australia and Sri Lanka in the Super 8s stage.

New Zealand lost in the semifinal to Sri Lanka again in 2007. Photo / Getty Images

South Africa, 2003
Game 1: New Zealand loses to Sri Lanka by 47 runs
Game 2: New Zealand beats the West Indies by 20 runs
Game 3: New Zealand beats South Africa by 9 wickets
Game 4: New Zealand loses to Kenya by a walkover after the side refuses to play in Nairobi for security concerns.

Result:
New Zealand is knocked out in the Super 6 stages after beating Zimbabwe and losing to Australia and India.

New Zealand couldn't get past India in the Super 6 stage. Photo / Getty Images

England, 1999
Game 1: New Zealand beats Bangladesh by 6 wickets
Game 2: New Zealand beats Australia by 5 wickets
Game 3: New Zealand loses to the West Indies by 7 wickets
Game 4: New Zealand loses to Pakistan by 62 runs

Result:
New Zealand loses in their semifinal against Pakistan by nine wickets after losing to South Africa and beating India in the Super 6 stage.

New Zealand were beaten by Pakistan in the semifinal. Photo / Getty Images

Winning paths

To round out the analysis, it's worth asking whether the four-game mark provides any sort of barometer on the chances of success.

In 2011, India won the World Cup having tied their second game against England. Australia triumphed in 2007 and 2003 having won their first four games on the trot. But then again, they also managed to take the spoils in 1999 after losing to New Zealand in their second game and Pakistan in their third game.

Conclusion

Like anything in history, the evidence is inconclusive and contradictory. Let's just say the Black Caps are doing well but have a long way to go.

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