Cricket World Cup: Black Caps ponder the need for change

Daniel Vettori looks set to feature in an unchanged NZ side. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Winning side on a roll and likelihood is that they’ll take field against Afghanistan

Lips are sealed but there's a strong likelihood of an unchanged New Zealand team for the fifth straight game when they face Afghanistan at McLean Park tomorrow.

The opposing arguments are well known - they're on a roll, keep it going vs get at least some of the four who have not had a match into action, just in case things go wrong before a knockout game.

Both have merit. There have been no hints either way, nothing to be deduced from watching the work in the nets two days out from the game.

And if there are no changes for tomorrow, it's unlikely that policy will change for the final group A game against Bangladesh in Hamilton next Friday. By then the die will have been cast.

It is an all eggs-in-one-basket approach. If it goes wrong further down the line, question time will be interesting.

New Zealand have ticked most boxes. Support is swelling. The win over Australia last weekend has produced a late boost in ticket sales for tomorrow.

It's likely New Zealand will want to win the toss and bat on the traditional McLean Park highway tomorrow.

That might be the only way they get time in the middle for Ross Taylor, Grant Elliott and Luke Ronchi, who occupy important middle order roles and are short on time at the crease.

Afghanistan's bowling is regarded as significantly superior to their batting. Chasing a low total won't necessarily bring a benefit for those three batsmen.

There is a milestone coming up for experienced spinner Dan Vettori. He needs two wickets to become the first New Zealand bowler to 300 one-day international wickets. Only four New Zealanders have reached 200 and Vettori is well clear of team mate Kyle Mills, the only other current player. Vettori has taken 290 for New Zealand, eight for world teams, which muddies the waters.

It is a statistic the left armer hasn't given much thought to. Test statistics spin his wheels more. But he admitted he'll be chuffed to get there.

What might matter more is that Vettori leads the cup in terms of bowling economy rate. Of those who have bowled 10 or more overs, his economy rate of 3.3 is superior to all others. So what is a pass mark for a bowler in terms of keeping it tight?

"It depends on your role. It changes from bowler to bowler," Vettori said. "If you bowl in the early stages you look to take wickets and can go for a few more runs. But you know when you walk off the field if you've done your job or not."

Afghanistan's story, many players emerging from refugee camps, is inspiring. But it's patronising to talk of that and risk belittling their cricket achievements.

They have three decent seamers - although Shapoor Zadran, Hamid Hassan and Dawlat Zadran were put through hoops by Australia this week, to the tune of a combined 30-1-260-5.

NZ v Afghanistan

McLean Park, 11am tomorrow

New Zealand (probable): Brendon McCullum (c), Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, Grant Elliott, Corey Anderson, Luke Ronchi, Dan Vettori, Tim Southee, Adam Milne, Trent Boult.

Afghanistan: (from) Mohammad Nabi, Javed Ahmadi, Usman Ghani, Nawroz Mangal, Asghar Stanikzai, Samiullah Shenwari, Najibullah Zadran, Afsar Zazai, Dawlat Zadran, Hamid Hassan, Shapoor Zadran, Gulbadin Naib, Aftab Alam, Shafiqullah, Nasir Jamal.

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