By RICHARD BOOCK
New Zealand's hold on a likely Super Six berth has been weakened by Kenya's scarcely believable 53-run win over group B high-flyers Sri Lanka.
Of all the probable scenarios leading up to the end of the first round, the idea of Kenya knocking off Sanath Jayasuriya's side always seemed
faintly fantastic, about as likely as South African boss Percy Sonn waving aside the VIP drinks cabinet in favour of a mineral water.
It was just Kenya's 10th win in 55 one-day internationals and their fourth against a test side apart from Bangladesh, and it left the pool B teams facing more tension and anxiety in the race for second-round qualification.
New Zealand, in particular, were served no favours by the result, although after opting not to travel to Nairobi on the grounds of safety, it's doubtful any Kenyans will be shedding any tears over their plight.
As was the case at the end of last week, the final standings will depend largely on the result of Sri Lanka's last pool games against the West Indies and South Africa, only now there is one more team in the mix and a greater danger of New Zealand being eliminated.
Presuming New Zealand win their final games against Bangladesh and Canada, they will have to hope that the remaining games pan out in their favour, as there is now one combination of results that would lead to their certain exit.
The criteria that separates more than two teams deadlocked on the same number of points favours whoever has won the most number of games between the respective teams, and then reverts to run-rate.
Presuming Kenya can beat Bangladesh at Johannesburg on Saturday, New Zealand could find themselves heading home early if Sri Lanka lose to the West Indies in Cape Town on Friday night and then beat South Africa under lights at Durban next Monday night.
There are about four other possible scenarios in the remaining games, but all would give New Zealand a strong chance of qualifying if they were able to boost their run-rate against Bangladesh and Canada.
The best set of circumstances for New Zealand would be if Sri Lanka were beaten in both their remaining games, allowing Stephen Fleming's side to carry through to the Super Six the points they collected against the West Indies and South Africa.
However, New Zealand's most straightforward path to the Super Six would be if Sri Lanka won against the West Indies and South Africa, leaving the Kiwis to march through in third place behind the Sri Lankans and Kenya.
Along with New Zealand, who opted to forfeit their points to Kenya instead of travelling to Nairobi, the most twitchy teams in the group would include South Africa - who suffered surprise losses against the West Indies and New Zealand - and the West Indies, who were unfairly penalised by the washout against Bangladesh.
Possibly the best-placed sides are Sri Lanka, who still have their fate in their own hands, and Kenya, courtesy of their "wins" over New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Canada, and their likely triumph over Bangladesh.
While Kenya posted just their 10th ODI win, Bangladesh have won only three in 65 matches, and only once against the East African side.
Jayasuriya attributed his side's loss to a disappointing batting performance, saying it was a "gettable" total but that no one in the side took responsibility.
"I'm worried about the middle-order batting. This was our best opportunity to win before our next big match. We didn't play well, and this puts us under pressure to beat the West Indies in Cape Town. That match, and the one against South Africa, will be a big test of our character."
The Kenyans made 210 after being surprisingly invited to bat first, and Sri Lanka were bowled out for just 157 after off-spinner Collins Obuya's took five for 24, a step up on his previous best of two for 77.
It was the latest in a long line of World Cup upsets, including:
* Bangladesh beating Pakistan by 62 runs at the 1999 tournament in England, a match which later ended up at the centre of a match-fixing storm.
* Kenya beating the West Indies by 73 runs at Pune, during the 1996 tournament in India and Pakistan.
* Zimbabwe beating England by nine runs at Sydney during the 1992 tournament, nine years after they had knocked over Australia by 13 runs in the 1983 cup.
* Possibly the earliest cup boilover happened in 1979 in England, when Sri Lanka beat India by 47 runs, three years before they were awarded full ICC member status.
World Cup schedule
Points table
By RICHARD BOOCK
New Zealand's hold on a likely Super Six berth has been weakened by Kenya's scarcely believable 53-run win over group B high-flyers Sri Lanka.
Of all the probable scenarios leading up to the end of the first round, the idea of Kenya knocking off Sanath Jayasuriya's side always seemed
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