KEY POINTS:
New Zealand are poised to take advantage of a second round draw that could ease their path to the World Cup semifinals.
Having qualified for the Super Eights after brushing aside Kenya at St Lucia yesterday morning, the New Zealand team now face tomorrow's final group game against
Canada before leaving for Antigua and the start of the second round.
Providing this morning's Group D showdown between Pakistan and Zimbabwe ends as predicted, Ireland will cement their Super Eight place alongside New Zealand, the West Indies, Australia and South Africa; and England will qualify as long as they beat Kenya on Sunday.
The only real doubt involves Group B, which could finish in a three-way tie between Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh, and require run-rate calculations to decide the two qualifiers.
India, the World Cup winners in 1983, have to beat Sri Lanka on Saturday to stay alive, and then hope Bangladesh don't boost their run-rate too much in the final Group B match against Bermuda on Monday.
If India beat Sri Lanka and Bangladesh topple Bermuda as expected, three teams will be locked together with two wins apiece.
Sri Lanka have a far superior run-rate to either of their rivals and will be hoping to increase that during this morning's outing against Bangladesh.
The issue is an important one for New Zealand, who could eventually find themselves playing both Ireland and Bangladesh in the second round instead of more formidable opponents such as Pakistan and India.
That, in turn, will mean six genuine semifinal prospects rather than eight, and will turn the blowtorch on the world's No 7 and No 8 ranked sides - England and the West Indies.
New Zealand will start their Super Eight campaign against the West Indies next Friday, after which they will square off against Bangladesh or possibly India, depending on final Group B results and the subsequent run-rates.
Stephen Fleming's side will then almost certainly play Ireland at Guyana, before moving on to Grenada for three top-billing matches against Sri Lanka, South Africa and Australia.
New Zealand's advantage stems from a helpful combination of format rules.
As Group C winners they'll be one of only four teams to progress through to the Super Eights with a two-point head-start, and one of just two (the other is either Australia or South Africa) to also have the opportunity of playing both minnows.
As Super Eight teams are scheduled to play all fellow qualifiers except for the side from their own group, the West Indies will miss the chance to play Ireland, and whoever wins Group B - probably Sri Lanka - will not play Bangladesh.
On the other hand, New Zealand will fancy their chances of picking up four points against both of the lesser threats, and will go close to securing a semifinals berth if they can win one of their four remaining games.
In fact, if New Zealand continue on their winning way and manage to knock over the hosts at Antigua next week, they could have a semifinal position wrapped up after their game against Ireland, despite three games remaining.
Useful fact No 1
Second round teams carry through only those points earned against fellow group qualifiers. Therefore, if New Zealand and England progress from Group C, New Zealand will start the Super Eights with two points; England with none.
Useful fact No 2
Second round teams play all fellow qualifiers except for the other side that progresses from their own group. Hence, if the West Indies and Ireland qualify from Group D, they will not meet again in the Super Eights.
