Black Caps v Sri Lanka: Rain could ruin New Zealand’s shot at Cricket World Cup

Mitchell Santner snagged five wickets against the Netherlands. Photo / Photosport

Thunderstorms threaten to derail the Black Caps’ hopes of making the semifinals of the Cricket World Cup in India.

Tonight New Zealand faces Sri Lanka at M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru (9pm NZT), their final pool match of the tournament - but it could be rained off, with scattered thunderstorms forecast.

It comes after the city’s wettest November day since 2015 overnight Monday, receiving more than 7cm of rainfall according to the Indian Meteorological Department. It resulted in waterlogging in low-lying areas and caused flooding in underpasses in several parts of the city. More rain is on the way too, with Bengaluru forecast for a high of 27C today with a couple of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and into the evening, according to AccuWeather.

The latest forecast predicts thunderstorms at 2pm local time which is the scheduled start for the match, with more rain set to return later in the evening.

Weather.com predicts a 75 percent chance of rain from 2pm, and more than 50 percent chance between 5-7pm.

Weather impacted the Black Caps’ previous match overnight Saturday, which saw the Kiwis rack up 401 runs but eventually lose to Pakistan. Pakistan scored 200 for one wicket after 25.3 overs when rain forced players from the field, with the DLS method earning them a 21-run victory when play couldn’t resume.

It puts the Black Caps in a tough position to make the semifinals despite sitting in fourth on the standings. India, South Africa, and Australia have all qualified but New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan all face an uncertain future. Fortunately, though, New Zealand boasts a better net run rate than Pakistan and Afghanistan.

How New Zealand can qualify for the Cricket World Cup semifinals:

Wins: 4

Losses: 4

Net run rate: +0.398

Still to play: Sri Lanka (Thursday, 9.30pm)

The easiest path to qualification for the Black Caps is to win their remaining match against Sri Lanka tomorrow on 10 points and finish with a higher net run rate than Pakistan and Afghanistan who could also finish on 10 points.

If they lose to Sri Lanka, or the match is rained off, hope Pakistan and Afghanistan lose their remaining matches and finish with a higher run rate than those two teams.

How Pakistan can qualify for the Cricket World Cup semifinals:

Wins: 4

Losses: 4

Net run rate: +0.036

Still to play: England (Saturday)

Win their remaining match to finish on 10 points, and finish with a higher net run rate than New Zealand and Afghanistan.

Lose their remaining match to finish on eight points, hope New Zealand and Afghanistan both lose their remaining matches and finish with a higher net run rate than those two teams.

How Afghanistan can qualify for the Cricket World Cup semifinals:

Wins: 4

Losses: 3

Net run rate: -0.338

Still to play: South Africa (Friday)

Win their remaining match to finish on 10 points, and finish with a higher net run rate than New Zealand and Pakistan.

Lose their remaining match to finish on eight points, hope New Zealand and Pakistan both lose their remaining matches and finish with a higher net run rate than those two teams.

Luke Kirkness is an Online Sports Editor for the NZ Herald. He previously covered consumer affairs for the Herald and was an assistant news director in the Bay of Plenty. He won Student Journalist of the Year in 2019.