That's a significant difference to overhaul in just one game – and has left Pakistan needing to produce the greatest performance in ODI history to make the final four.
Firstly, they need to win the toss and bat first – if Bangladesh win the toss and opt to bat, there is no scenario where Pakistan qualify for the semifinals. Similarly, if Pakistan bat first and score fewer than 308, they also cannot qualify.
Their chances move from impossible to, well, simply inconceivable, if they put in a stunning performance while batting first. Score 350, and they have to win by 312 runs. 400 would require a victory of 316 runs, bowling Bangladesh out for 84 or fewer, while reaching 450 would need them to bowl Bangladesh out for 129 or fewer – and win by 321 runs.
All of those margins would double as the biggest win in ODI history – which is currently the Black Caps' 290-run win over Ireland in 2008 - while Pakistan's biggest ODI victory is a 255-run victory, also over Ireland, in 2016.
Their biggest victory over Bangladesh is by 233 runs, while the largest win at Lord's, where their clash will be held on Friday, is 202 runs.
So – get ready to watch the Black Caps play in Manchester on Tuesday – against either Australia or India, with their opponent still to be confirmed in the final group games.
Unless, of course, you believe in miracles.
The Alternative Commentary Collective are podcasting their way through the World Cup. Known for their unconventional sports analysis and off-kilter banter, the ACC have come to ask the tough questions. Here's the latest episode of 'The Agenda':
WARNING: GRAPHIC CONTENT
