By TERRY MADDAFORD
The calculators have come into play as cricket's Shell Cup competition heads for the home straight.
With just two matches remaining, all six teams still have a chance of reaching the top three for the playoffs.
On the other hand, any of the six could also miss out.
Ironically, bottom-placed Wellington,
who meet leaders Northern Districts at the Basin Reserve today, are best-placed if it comes down to net run rate to find the survivors, whereas Northern lie only fifth.
Northern can seal top place with victory today.
They have made one change from the team who lost to Canterbury in Whangarei on Sunday, with Graeme Aldridge replacing the injured Scott Styris.
In their early meeting, Northern won by three runs in their chase for a recalculated target in a rain-interrupted game.
In matches since then, Wellington have lost to Central Districts by one wicket, but have beaten Auckland and Otago.
If Northern do progress to the semifinal or final, they will play at Mt Maunganui's Blake Park because redevelopment work has ruled out WestpacTrust Park in Hamilton.
Auckland and Central meet today on Eden Park's outer oval in what should have been a replay of Sunday's washed-out game in Napier.
Central coach Dipak Patel acknowledges his team still have a chance, despite having four games washed out, but admits it is a long-shot given their poor run rate.
"Really, we need to win both games," said Patel who takes his team to Invercargill to play Otago in Thursday's final round.
In one change from the team named on Sunday, Hayden Morgan replaces Gareth West, who has been laid low with a stomach virus.
Auckland have the same 12 players, although coach Tony Sail was still to check on injured allrounder Aaron Barnes.
"We want to win both our games to make certain," Sail said. "It will be difficult for both teams at Eden Park because the wicket there has been a bit low and slow this summer. It is a hard pitch to read."
In the other ninth-round game today, second-placed Canterbury play Otago in Christchurch.
Points, with run-rate differential in brackets, are:
Northern Districts 11 (-0.149), Canterbury 8 (+0.108), Auckland 8 (+0.013), Central Districts 8 (-0.242), Otago 7 (-0.025), Wellington 6 (+0.191).
