Cricket: Astle possible bolter for annual contract

Todd Astle. Photo / Getty Images

New Zealand Cricket is expected to look to future promise rather than past experience when the contracted list of 20 players for the coming year is released.

While captaincy contenders Ross Taylor and Brendon McCullum should fill spots one and two, Tim Southee, Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson and Hamish Bennett should rise on the list; sitting inside the top 10.

In contrast, former skipper Daniel Vettori will slip because of his decision to opt out of Twenty20, and possibly 50-over internationals.

Stalwarts such as Jacob Oram and Kyle Mills are likely to drop, given they are no longer considered test prospects. The 33-year-old Daryl Tuffey could miss out altogether if the selection panel opts to develop younger fast bowling stocks, looking ahead to the 2015 World Cup. At 35, Scott Styris' expected retirement should also create a space.

The highest annual retainer of $177,000 plus match fees is likely to be awarded to Taylor - he will also receive a $50,000 bonus if he is named captain. Payments drop in $6,000 lots to the bottom three players who receive $72,000.

A quick tot up of domestic form and statistics, combined with the list of emerging players selected for New Zealand 'A' in their tournament in Australia in August suggests a few new contracts could be handed out.

Canterbury all-rounder Rob Nicol's limited overs skills that saw him win the overall MVP title last season should have him in demand.

If the selectors are looking for a bolter, Canterbury leg-spinner Todd Astle could be a contender. He took 37 wickets at 29.08 to help his side win the Plunket Shield.

Astle takes the ball away from the right-hander like the left-arm orthodox spin of Vettori. New Zealand rarely produces leg spinners but if the selectors believe offspinner Jeetan Patel (31) is past his best and Nathan McCullum and Luke Woodcock are considered one-day specialists, then Astle might sneak in.

Top Plunket Shield wicket-taker Neil Wagner will not receive a contract until he is eligible for the Black Caps next year.

Derek de Boorder's impressive batting and wicket-keeping for Otago probably have not done enough to unseat Reece Young as test gloveman but he is likely to be chosen as an emerging player.

At 34, former international keeper Gareth Hopkins might be overlooked for future national honours. Like de Boorder, Northern Districts opening batsman Brad Wilson and the Central Districts pairing of all-rounder Doug Bracewell and left-arm fast-medium bowler Ben Wheeler should tour Australia in August as emerging players.

The ranking decision is largely determined by 'gut feel'. Coach John Wright, stand-in national selection manager Mark Greatbatch and cricket director John Buchanan make their final call from what they have seen (Buchanan is more likely to facilitate this time around, given his recent arrival).

They are also guided by statistics like last season's averages and MVP points. Players are ranked in terms of their value to New Zealand across test, 50-over and Twenty20 matches.

A player's test value is given twice the weighting of his limited overs components in what is understood to be a 2:1:1 ratio. The figure across all formats determines where a player sits on the final list.

The structure of the cricketing calendar also influences a player's ranking. Last year there was an emphasis on limited overs players with the season culminating in the World Cup. This year New Zealand could play up to 12 tests against Zimbabwe, Australia, South Africa and the West Indies compared to just five last year - so that form of the game is given greater weight.

The likely lads

Potential contract list: Ross Taylor, Brendon McCullum, Tim Southee, Martin Guptill, Jesse Ryder, Daniel Vettori (if he plays 50-over matches), Kane Williamson, Hamish Bennett, Kyle Mills, Nathan McCullum, James Franklin, Chris Martin, Reece Young, Rob Nicol, Jacob Oram, Andy McKay, Brent Arnel, Luke Woodcock, BJ Watling, Grant Elliott.

In the reckoning: Derek de Boorder, Neil Broom (Otago), Brad Wilson, Daniel Flynn, Peter McGlashan (Northern Districts), Doug Bracewell, Ben Wheeler (Central Districts), Tim McIntosh (Auckland), Todd Astle, Dean Brownlie (Canterbury).

Could miss out or retire: Scott Styris, Jeetan Patel, Gareth Hopkins, Daryl Tuffey, Jamie How.