Jason Roy's injury does not merely deprive England of an outstanding opening batsman. It also deprives them of a player who is the standard-bearer for England's entire philosophy as a team.
"He's a guy who epitomises everything that we are about in the changing room and in the way thatwe play," captain Eoin Morgan acknowledged after Roy's calf injury against South Africa in Sharjah. When the outcome of the scan comes through on Monday, it is almost certain to confirm the end of his World Cup.
In lieu of Roy, England's challenge will be how to readjust their side. Reserve batsman James Vince is the obvious replacement for Roy in the squad; but who replaces him in England's XI is altogether more complicated.
The question about Roy's replacement is tied to two broader questions: whether England want to stick to their batting-heavy balance or move to a more bowler-heavy side; and England's strategy with the bat.
The likeliest option is that England replace Roy with another batsman - either Sam Billings or Vince. In many ways, Vince would be the simplest option. He could replace Roy at the top of the order, meaning that no one else would need to shuffle around.
The focus on Vince's Test credentials have overlooked that he has morphed into an outstanding T20 player. While Vince is more orthodox than Roy, he is also adept at exploiting the fielding restrictions: since the start of 2020, Vince's strike rate in the Powerplay in all T20, 129, is only fractionally below Roy's 133. In T20s this year alone, Vince has made consecutive 90-plus scores in the play-off and final to help Sydney Sixers win the Big Bash, excelled in the Pakistan Super League and led Southern Brave to the inaugural Hundred. He also scored his maiden international century in his last game for England.
Jason Roy of England walks off after pulling up with an injury against South Africa. Photo / Photosport
Yet parachuting in a reserve, even one who has been travelling with the squad, for a knockout match feels a little unEnglish. As such, Billings is the most likely beneficiary should England retain the same balance in their side.
Billings has very different strengths to Vince. He is an accomplished, innovative player of spin and is dangerous against pace bowling at the death. He would shuffle into England's middle order around number four or five.
Unless Vince is picked, Jos Buttler's new opening partner will have to come from a player already in the side. While Dawid Malan, Moeen Ali and Liam Livingstone have both opened regularly in franchise cricket, by far the likeliest option is Jonny Bairstow.
Moving Bairstow down to number four last year, on account of his prowess against spin, was shrewd. But Bairstow has struggled during the World Cup, falling to wrist-spin first ball against Sri Lanka and third against South Africa. Opening is his favoured position, and where he has developed one of the finest records in the world: in the last three IPL seasons, Bairstow averages 42.2 opening, with a strike rate of 143.
Bairstow is almost certain to open regardless of whether or not England select another bowler. England's formation of four specialist bowlers, with Moeen and Livingstone sharing fifth-bowler duties, worked brilliantly during their first four matches, but felt a little exposed against South Africa. It was not that the fifth bowler struggled - Moeen took one for 27 in his four overs, delivered straight through - but that, without Tymal Mills, England's seamers appeared vulnerable.
Black Caps captain Kane Williamson. Photo / Photosport
Both the semi-final and final will be day-night matches. Without changing the balance of their side, England will have to bowl eight overs of spin - not ideal if they bowl second, especially at Abu Dhabi, where the ground is open and the dew is a bigger factor. Just as problematic is that this formation compels England to bowl their seamers at times when they are less effective. A classic example was Chris Woakes against South Africa: his final over, the 16th over of the innings, yielded 21 runs, with Woakes's style at the death far less effective than with the new ball.
England might understandably be reluctant to replace Roy with Reece Topley, which would mean bringing in a No11 for an opener. But in David Willey and Tom Curran, England have two versatile options who are good enough batsmen to slot in at No7 - especially Willey, a particularly powerful hitter of spin.
Both bring distinct strengths with the ball. Willey is outstanding with the new ball, and could replicate the impact that other left-arm swing bowlers have had all tournament. His death bowling has improved, and he could be more reliable than Woakes delivering an over at the end of the innings.
Curran has an underwhelming record for England, even allowing for being used primarily at the end of an innings. But slow pitches might well suit his style; he snared three for 29 from 3.4 overs during his lone IPL match this season, when Delhi Capitals coach Ricky Ponting hailed his performance. Rather than yorkers, Curran relied on slower balls, cutters and bowling back of a length.
Both Willey and Curran have limitations as elite T20 bowlers. Willey struggles during the middle overs, while Curran has often been expensive during the Powerplay. But their weaknesses could be protected in an attack with five specialist bowlers, alongside Moeen and Livingstone. Neither Willey nor Curran would have to be relied upon to bowl four overs, so they could be saved for when they are most effective.
The rest of the attack would also benefit from their presence. An extra seamer would free England to use Wood much more aggressively, which could expose New Zealand's reliance on their top four. With an extra bowler, Woakes could also be shielded from bowling at the death.
It remains unlikely that England will tinker with the balance of the side they have maintained throughout their fine start to the World Cup. Yet Roy's injury may also present them with an opportunity to strengthen the side in a different way, by selecting Willey or Curran. England often espouse the importance of adaptability; now might be the time to show it in their team selection too.
