As the Black Caps approach their final game of pool play at the Twenty20 World Cup, a nation of 1.4 billion people is hoping they lose.
The Black Caps can move into the semifinals with a win over Afghanistan tonight, but any slip-up will almost certainly give India a stunningreprieve, and see the cricketing giants sneak into the semifinals after losing their first two matches.
India's demolition of Scotland yesterday has left them with a superior net run rate to Afghanistan, with both teams holding a 2-2 record, behind the Black Caps at 3-1.
If the Black Caps win, any further calculations become moot, with New Zealand moving on to the semifinals alongside Pakistan, and India and Afghanistan eliminated.
However, India's advantage on the net run rate tiebreaker means for Afghanistan to advance, not only do they need to beat the Black Caps, they need to do so by a healthy margin, while then hoping India lose to Namibia in their final match, or barely scrape out a win.
That unlikely scenario, and reluctance to rely on Namibia pulling off one of the sport's greatest upsets, could lead to Afghanistan playing a riskier match against the Black Caps in search of a big win, with a boom-or-bust strategy thereby reducing their chances of victory.
The Black Caps have a worse net run rate than both India and Afghanistan, meaning defeat to Afghanistan will end their tournament.
The Black Caps need to beat Afghanistan to move into the Twenty20 World Cup semifinals. Photo / Photosport
In all likelihood, an Afghanistan victory will only result in India progressing to the semifinals – something mirrored in the betting odds to make the semifinals, which has the Black Caps at $1.40, India at $3.20 and Afghanistan at $26.
With India's outcome now resting in the hands of Afghanistan, a cricket-mad nation will be rooting against New Zealand, and also hoping for a quick recovery for one of Afghanistan's star spinners.
Mujeeb Ur Rahman took 5-20 in Afghanistan's opener against Scotland, then 1-14 from four overs against Pakistan, but has missed the last two games due to injury, severely denting Afghanistan's bowling attack.
When bowling alongside Rashid Khan, Afghanistan have two world-class spinners who could trouble New Zealand, and as a result Indian spinner Ravichandran Ashwin had a cheeky suggestion in the hope Mujeeb will be available to take on the Black Caps.
"Afghanistan has played good cricket and a lot of our hopes rest with them, so all the very best to them. I really wish if we could provide any physio support to Mujeeb we can get him on the field," Ashwin joked. "That is all we can hope for."
Afghanistan aren't afraid of New Zealand – seamer Naveen-ul-Haq said earlier this week that he could see Afghanistan "having a great chance of beating any team in this competition" – and the Black Caps are well aware they could fall at the final hurdle of the group stage if they don't perform to their best.
"They're a really strong side and have played some really good cricket throughout this tournament with match-winners throughout their team," said skipper Kane Williamson.
