England's Adil Rashid. Photo / Photosport
England and New Zealand will go into Tuesday’s crucial T20 World Cup showdown knowing the winner will be well on course towards semifinal qualification.
For Jos Buttler’s England, the prospect of defeat would serve a potentially seismic blow to their hopes of World Cup glory, having already lost to Ireland in their second match and seeing Friday’s game with Australia washed out.
Having already beaten Afghanistan, England will be aware that a loss on Tuesday will leave them in a precarious position where not even a victory over Sri Lanka will be certain to see them through, with their fate going into the hands of others.
As the only team to have won two of their opening three matches, New Zealand have more of a buffer between themselves and the risk of early elimination. But such is the recent history of rivalry between these two sides – it doesn’t take much to bring the 2019 Cricket World Cup final back to mind – Tuesday’s contest should prove an enthralling and potentially decisive occasion.
Here’s where the match stands to be won and lost.
Combatting New Zealand’s new-ball attack
The empowerment of new-ball bowlers, allowing teams to attack with the new ball, has helped make the World Cup so compelling. In the Powerplay, the ball is both swinging and seaming more than in any T20 World Cup since 2010.
No attack is better equipped to exploit this assistance than New Zealand. Across all formats, Trent Boult and Tim Southee have shared the new ball for a decade for New Zealand. To the World Cup, they have brought their Test match style qualities – Southee has been the most accurate seamer in the World Cup with the new ball, hitting a good length; Boult has brought his usual venomous new-ball swing, allied to an awkward bouncer. Together they have reduced both of New Zealand’s opponents so far to disarray with the new ball: Australia were 37-3 after the Powerplay, Sri Lanka 24-4.
England’s challenge is to prevent Boult and Southee from doing the same on Tuesday. Southee’s length has been unerringly predictable – he has hit a good length 87 per cent of the time with the new ball, which is exactly why he has been so good. So one option could be to attempt to turn this very consistency into a disadvantage, by batsmen using their feet to him. Yet the excellence of New Zealand’s new ball attack is such that it might demand a more restrained approach than normal.
Jos Buttler tends to play more aggressively for England than in the Indian Premier League in the Powerplay, but the threat that New Zealand pose is such that there is a case for him to begin his innings more sedately, with Alex Hales – whose wicket is less valuable – taking calculated risks against Boult and Southee.
Dislodging Finn Allen
Who is New Zealand’s most important wicket? A strong case can be made for Devon Conway, who scored 92 not out against Australia or Glenn Phillips, who scored a stunning 104 against Sri Lanka. There is also Kane Williamson, even if he is not quite in his best form and T20 is not his best format.
Yet it is another man who has the greatest impact on how many runs New Zealand can score in the Powerplay: the belligerent Finn Allen, who forced his way into the side’s XI ahead of Martin Guptill. Allen showed his dynamism by thumping Mitchell Starc for three straight boundaries – one a six – in the opening over of the competition. His 16-ball 42 transformed the early feel of the game, helping New Zealand reach 56-0 after four overs.
Trying to use his feet to charge down the ground, Allen was dismissed by a yorker from Josh Hazlewood: a delivery that Chris Woakes or, more likely, Sam Curran could deploy against Allen. While Curran has tended to be saved for the middle and death overs, Allen has often been vulnerable against left-armers early on – he is dismissed every 11 balls by left-arm quicks in the Powerplay. Curran could be an asset in the opening overs.
How England manage New Zealand’s spin
When New Zealand thumped Australia in the World Cup opener, Southee bowled David Warner in the second over. With Warner, the sole left-hander in Australia’s top six, dismissed, New Zealand’s spin duo, Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi – a left-arm spinner and leg spinner respectively, who both turn the ball away from right-handers but into left-handers – took a combined 4-60 from their eight overs.
Unlike Australia, England have an abundance of left-handers in the middle order: Dawid Malan at three, Ben Stokes at four and Moeen Ali floating. Their tussle with New Zealand’s spinners will determine who controls the middle overs. No man playing in this World Cup scores quicker against spin than Moeen, who England might well promote up the order – replicating the role he played in the World Cup semifinal against New Zealand last year, when he made 51 not out.
Naturally, New Zealand will be aware of England’s plethora of left-handers, who are all more comfortable against the ball turning into them. They will also know that, in recent years, Malan and Stokes have notably modest records against off spin. As such, allrounder Michael Bracewell – an off spinner and explosive batsman – might well come into New Zealand’s side to replace Santner, making it harder for England to pair left-handers together and attack the spinners.
Adil Rashid returning to form
By his high standards, Adil Rashid is in a funk. After an underwhelming home summer, he has taken just 1-135 from 15 overs since arriving in Australia, struggling for control.
Yet against New Zealand, Rashid looms as one of England’s most important players. Batting teams endeavour to pair left and right-handers together at the crease – so that one man is stronger against off spin, and the other against leg spin. But New Zealand’s top five includes four right-handers. And the sole southpaw, Conway, is unusual in being more accomplished against deliveries spinning away from him than into him. All of New Zealand’s top five, average worse against leg spin than off spin – though Phillips has a strike rate of 142 against leg spin and is fresh from his century against Sri Lanka.
It would be an opportune moment for Rashid to regain his best form. England might also call upon Liam Livingstone’s leg spin, which snared three wickets against Ireland. Livingstone was England’s most economical bowler against New Zealand in last year’s World Cup semifinal, dismissing both Conway and Phillips. If conditions allow, his bowling could be important again.
The Black Caps will play just three red-ball matches this summer.