Chris Cairns: Just keep the egos landed

COMMENT

Across the Tasman there are murmurings this Black Cap outfit won't cut it in the upcoming two-test series with Australia, and victory is pretty much in the pouch for the baggy green brigade.

While the majority may lean towards the home team, I believe that, in a two-horse race, there's always a chance. I know Flem and John Bracewell will be doing a huge job behind the scenes to plot what would be a great upset. But how?

Let's put it in perspective. Having heard and read various opinions from current and ex-Black Cap players and ex-Australian players, my take on things is that it is all about perspective and what we want to achieve.

Putting things in perspective, let us deal with the facts. Most importantly, the bowling.

Combining the Australian team's test wicket tally of the five frontline bowlers shows they have taken a total of 1436 wickets, with an average of 287 each. Putting the same equation together for the likely candidates in the supposed 12 for New Zealand - Jacob Oram, Chris Martin, Ian Butler, James Franklin and Daniel Vettori - sees a combined tally of 315 wickets, at an average of 63 each. That's 1436 vs 315; 287 vs 63. This highlights the difference the batsmen in each side will encounter. We can expect a ruthless display of potent test bowling from the Australians.

The Black Caps, on the other hand, will have an attack which is very new. To use a quote earlier in the week from captain Stephen Fleming, they will "have to fight well above their weight".

The call has to go out to the batsmen. For the Black Caps to have a chance, the batsmen must post in excess of 450 runs in their first innings. The first innings is where Australia are dismantling teams. After bowling out the opposition cheaply, Australia then bat the team out of the game through the pace of their scoring.

Often their matches are wrapped up in four days because they score so quickly and give their bowlers plenty of time to bowl out the opposition. However, their scoring rate could also be their weakness. Somehow the Black Caps have to slow up their scoring. The Australian ego will not allow them to be tied down. They must dominate. Fields may have to be more conservative, we have to be patient and take every opportunity offered in the field.

Patience is again key on the batting front, as displayed during the last tour to Australia in 2001 when our batsmen kept McGrath and Warne out of the wickets. Our game must be precise on both fronts - if it is, we have a chance.

I would like to see the bowling group chosen for this series persevered with through the summer. In each of the five tests, I guarantee there will be calls for people to be dropped.

Remember, this is one of the greatest batting line-ups to have ever played the game. At the end of the series our bowlers will be better off for the experience.

Often the favourite in the tussle can get frustrated if things don't go their way. Openings will present themselves and opportunities exist. Let's hope the Black Caps can seize every one of them.