KEY POINTS:
Uncertainty and avarice may currently be gripping New Zealand cricket, but it is England who most need to win the three-test series starting in Hamilton on Wednesday.
When Michael Vaughan's side defeated Australia in the 2005 Ashes it was widely predicted - in England anyway - that English
cricket was standing on the threshold of a golden era, but since those heady days they have won just two of the eight test series they have played.
The most embarrassing and damaging of the four series defeats was the 5-0 thrashing against Australia last winter.
England's obsession with the Ashes is the principle reason why several senior players need to perform in New Zealand. Australia return to England in the summer of 2009 and the selectors will have an eye on that series when they pick their sides this summer.
Anything but a series victory here would see Vaughan's position as captain being seriously questioned for the first time. Andrew Strauss desperately needs runs, while Stephen Harmison and Matthew Hoggard need to show that their bodies are strong and they still have what it takes.
If it is felt that these four players, none of whom played in the one-day series, have had their day and by next year will be well past their best - then fresh, new players can be introduced and given a year of international experience before the Ashes.
This series will be won by the better bowling side, and England - despite concerns about Harmison, Hoggard and Monty Panesar, who had a disappointing tour of Sri Lanka before Christmas - possess it.
New Zealand's batting has depth but it is likely to contain only three players - Stephen Fleming, Jacob Oram and Mathew Sinclair - with a test batting average over 35. England's top six, in contrast, all average in excess of 40.
These figures suggest that England will bowl New Zealand out twice in two, if not three, tests. The question is, can New Zealand's attack dismiss England for fewer runs?
On modern New Zealand pitches, which tend to possess more pace and bounce than their predecessors, the answer is probably no.
New Zealand's best chance would be to instruct the groundsmen in Hamilton, Wellington and Napier to produce slow, low dust bowls. The pitches would not produce the most riveting cricket ever played, but these surfaces would negate England's biggest threat, their pace attack, and encourage two of New Zealand's better bowlers.
A spinning shoot out between Daniel Vettori and Jeetan Patel, against Panesar and Graeme Swann could produce a far more even contest.
Such pitches would allow New Zealand to play a far more balanced side than England, too. In Oram, New Zealand have the genuine all-rounder their opponents do not, a figure that allows them to play five bowlers.
Without Andrew Flintoff, England do not possess such luxury and the selectors would be torn between playing three seamers and one spinner or two of each.
The absence of Flintoff has tested Vaughan as a captain. When fit, Flintoff is England's best bowler. Whatever the field set by Vaughan he could bowl to it.
Vaughan is a fine captain, one of the best England have produced, but there are times when he tinkers too much, changing the field much more often than is required. Such tactics can unsettle a bowler, and Panesar seems to have suffered more than anyone. Within reason, a bowler should bowl to a field he is happy with, and it is debatable whether this is always the case with Panesar.
The major challenge for New Zealand is finding an opening combination capable of keeping out England's new-ball bowlers. In under a year Ryan Sidebottom has become England's most reliable bowler and he will take the new ball with Hoggard.
If Matthew Bell, Jamie How or Craig Cumming can protect the middle order from the hard, shiny new cherry, New Zealand could post competitive totals. But if they are exposed to the pace, bounce and general hostility of Harmison early they are in trouble.
Harmison may be wayward but he needs only to get the odd ball in the right place to bring back memories of 2004 when he terrorised the Black Caps.
New Zealand will miss Shane Bond hugely. Chris Martin is a much-improved bowler but he, Kyle Mills, Jacob Oram and Iain O'Brien should not frighten a batting lineup of England's quality.
Kevin Pietersen's will be the key wicket. Pietersen, by his own admission, has not been at his best but he is still a magnificent player. There are minor technical issues - he is trying to play straighter - and New Zealand could cause him problems if they bowl well. If they do not, they will see a lot of him in March.
* Angus Fraser played 46 tests for England from 1989-98, taking 177 wickets.
