The Black Caps will be doing well to take the second cricket test against Australia, which starts in Hamilton today, into the fifth day.
As you might be able to tell, I'm not exactly filled with confidence about their chances of bouncing back from a comprehensive defeat in Wellington.
Man
for man, the Australians outgun us and their relentless attitude in the field will probably prove too much for a New Zealand batting lineup that relies too heavily on Daniel Vettori and Brendon McCullum.
You wouldn't call the Aussie attack frightening, although it certainly is quick. There probably aren't any other attacks with three blokes who bowl so consistently close to the 150km/h mark. They are always on the mark, and they never give opponents a break.
I was was impressed with Tim McIntosh in Wellington, where he probably deserved a century. If he can continue that form, and bat for long periods again, at least it will mean we are only losing wickets at one end.
I expect Mathew Sinclair to replace Peter Ingram at number three. I bumped into "Skippy" the other night and had a good talk with him and he has developed into someone who really knows the game.
While Sinclair's problems in the test arena are well known, he has a ton of experience and a fine domestic record so it makes sense to bring him in for young Ingram, who is struggling.
I don't expect the 19-year-old Kane Williamson to play. The Black Caps' method usually involves bringing players in via the one day games for a while, with test selection the final step.
Williamson really can play. It will be exciting to see his introduction to international cricket over the next year or so.
As Martin Crowe said, asking Williamson to step up to face Australia - a major jump compared to dealing with our domestic attacks - would probably be too great a risk at this stage of his career.
Jeetan Patel is almost certain to come in, a rare outing for our second spinner. Patel leads a strange international existence, waiting in the wings, and he will be jumping out of his skin if given a chance in Hamilton.
