How the Black Caps can beat Australia - the secret

How do the Black Caps beat Australia? Stop David Warner and Steve Smith. Photo / Photosport

To beat Australia, you must stop David Warner and Steve Smith.

There, the secret has been found. The numbers have been crunched and the magic formula revealed.

That's easier said than done though. The pair are the best ODI batsman in the game at the moment - by a country mile.

They've scored a combined total of 2386 runs this year - Warner with 1232 and Smith with 1154.

The next best player on the list is South Africa's Quentin de Kock who has scored 857.

Granted the pair have played more than anyone else this season - Warner 22 innings and Smith 24 - but their averages of 58.66 and 52.45 respectively place them among the best in the game.

Warner last night broke the record for most centuries in a calendar year with six, meanwhile Smith picked up three of his own and seven 50s.

But here's where the numbers really get interesting.

The Australians have lost 11 ODI's this year - not their best performance and a five-match whitewash by South Africa certainly did not help the cause.

The key to those losses? Stopping either of the two stars, or both.

For Smith, Australia lost nine of those 11 matches when he scored 30 runs or less. They lost seven when he scored less than 25.

For Warner, Australia lost five of those 11 when he scored less than 25.

Thought these stats aren't exactly encouraging considering the Black Caps next face them at the MCG where Smith averages 43.63 and Warner 41.74.

But the relationship between the two is also key.

In those 11 losses, when Warner got out for 40 runs or less (six occassions), Smith only once scored more than 21 runs.

And they've lost nine games when at least one of them gets out for less than 30.

And how did teams get them out? Of their 22 dismissals - one including a run out - 15 came from fast bowlers.

And the numbers work for the Black Caps as well.

The won their three-match series with Australia earlier in the year 2-1. In the two games they won, Warner and Smith scored 16 and 21 in the first, 12 and 16 in the second.

In the middle game that they lost, Warner managed 98.

So now it's on paper - stop Smith and Warner.

Now, the Black Caps just need to figure out how. Maybe start by reading this .