How Black Caps can reach T20 World Cup semi-finals

The Black Caps are on the verge of another semi-final appearance at a T20 World Cup after their 61-run thrashing of hosts Sri Lanka in Colombo this morning.

They have one foot in the final four, but what needs to happen for it to be confirmed?

Beat England

How about a gentleman’s agreement, Baz? The simplest part of the equation is that, if the Black Caps beat England in their final Super Eights game on Saturday morning, they will top the group. That would line them up against the runners-up in Group 1. If New Zealand qualify, it would also mean both semi-finals are played in India, as Pakistan and Sri Lanka would not be involved.

England and New Zealand last clashed in a three-match series in October. Two games were no-results, while England won the only completed match by 65 runs. They have faced off in Sri Lanka only once, back at the 2012 World Cup, in which England won by six wickets against a New Zealand side featuring current England coach Brendon McCullum.

Read match report: Santner, Ravindra lead NZ to brilliant T20 World Cup win over Sri Lanka

Lose to England, Sri Lanka beat Pakistan

Sri Lanka and Pakistan clash in the final Group 2 game, 24 hours after the New Zealand-England game. If the Black Caps lose to England, they’ll be relying on Sri Lanka to do them a favour and finish their home tournament in style after losing three straight.

Pakistan and Sri Lanka recently split a three-game series 1-1, but Pakistan have won four of their last six clashes.

Lose to England, Pakistan win by ...

It gets a bit complicated, and calculators will be needed, but in basic terms, the Black Caps have a 70-run advantage over Pakistan. So if England win by one run, Pakistan will need to win by 69; if England win by 30, Pakistan need to win by 40, and so on. But not all results are decided by runs, so if England successfully chase down a New Zealand total, the factor would be how many overs were remaining.

Longish explanation short: if the Black Caps lose, it will be in their favour to lose narrowly. If England thrash them, the door is certainly open for Pakistan to steal their spot.