By RICHARD BOOCK
Gabba fans with long memories will not easily dismiss New Zealand's chances in the opening test against Australia, starting next week.
Already written off as a threat to the world champions' dominance at home, New Zealand will start the match as overwhelming underdogs, especially after turning up this week without Shane Bond or Daryl Tuffey.
The perception is that the Australian juggernaut, fresh from dismantling India, will career through the Brisbane test like a runaway truck, leaving a trail of Kiwi roadkill in its wake.
But New Zealand will take heart from the fact that they have tasted success previously at Brisbane, and that they almost snatched a dramatic win during their most recent visit in 2001.
That was the match New Zealand nearly stole on the wire after Steve Waugh, frustrated by weather interruptions, gave up his side's hard-fought advantage and set New Zealand a total they almost achieved.
In fact, had Chris Cairns managed to clear Ricky Ponting on the long-on boundary when the tourists were 20 runs shy of the target, New Zealand would have almost certainly added their second test scalp at the Gabba.
Next week's opening rubber is seen as a critical one on such a short tour; the match that will almost certainly dictate the result of the series and provide New Zealand with either a major headache or some positive impetus.
With only the Adelaide test to follow before the start of the one-day series, the Brisbane showdown could even set the scene for New Zealand's international summer, which also includes a reciprocal visit from Australia.
New Zealand's best-remembered moment at Brisbane was in 1985, when Australia were brought to their knees by the combined weight of Richard Hadlee's nine for 52 and Martin Crowe's 188.
They later sewed up their maiden series triumph in Australia with a six-wicket win at Perth - the last time a New Zealand side have walked off an Australian test ground as victors.
To be fair, there was a period during the 1997 test at Brisbane when a modest-looking New Zealand side frustrated the Australians and surprised their punters, but it later turned to custard and the hosts won by 186 runs.
For all that, there is a suggestion that the weight of expectation on Australia could seriously increase the pressure on Ponting's team next week, which in turn could be exploited by a savvy New Zealand side.
This year's Kiwi squad might not be bristling with firepower, but it's hard to escape the feeling that their perceived failings have been exaggerated by Australia's sense of confidence and wellbeing.
In truth, they shouldn't be nearly as bad as everyone's making out and could even cause a few heart-flutters for home supporters if quality players such as Stephen Fleming, Brendon McCullum and Daniel Vettori hit their straps.
On the other hand, Australia lost the final test in India in galling fashion and are the sort of team who will look to that result for extra motivation, rather than excusing the performance as a minor hiccup.
There is also the not-so-small issue of the competition within the Australian side, a dynamic that ensures all the players will strive for more, if only to avoid being considered expendable by the selectors.
The idea of Simon Katich being dropped after averaging 42 in tests over the past 12 months, or Brett Lee - one of the world's fastest bowlers - confined to drinks duties, would be scarcely believable for other test-playing nations.
But the intense rivalry is now a common theme for the Australians and will no doubt keep them honest when they arrive in Brisbane tomorrow to start preparations for the test match. For some of them, their greatest battle will be, not against the New Zealanders, but against their own team-mates.
* Richard Boock will be covering the tour for the Herald.
Black Caps fixtures and results 2004-05
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