Cricket: Gabba still favours batting first

New Zealand's innings defeat in 2004 is one of the rare times a team has lost a test batting first at the Gabba. Photo / GETTY IMAGES

Black Caps should heed history, which shows teams who can survive early sessions prosper.

If New Zealand win the toss in the first test against Australia starting on Thursday in Brisbane, expect them to bat.

Former Australian captain and Channel Nine commentator Ian Chappell can be heard, at least once a summer, murmuring the refrain, "nine times out of 10 when you win the toss, bat first; on the 10th occasion think about it, then bat".

There seems little doubt Australia, via debutant skipper Steve Smith, will follow Chappell's advice if the coin comes down in their favour at the venue, something which has happened only four times in 15 years. They have not lost at the 'Gabba in 27 years and last decided to field first in 2000, when the West Indies went to lunch at 45 for two, and lost by an innings and 126 runs.

After a disrupted build-up, due to the sub-standard pitch at Blacktown in Sydney, New Zealand will likely face a Brisbane wicket with customary bounce and carry. Chappell's wisdom should also ring in Brendon McCullum's ears.

Yes, if faced with an emerald-tinged batting monster and stifling humidity, he might consider otherwise, especially if memories of "Newlands" and "45" are rekindled from his captaincy debut in January 2013.

Since the turn of the century at Brisbane, if a team chooses to bat and the first session is negotiated with the loss of two wickets or less, their chances of avoiding defeat are high.

On only one occasion in the last 15 years - New Zealand's 67-2 in 2004 - has that occurred. That side went on to lose by an innings and 156 runs after being bundled out for 76 in their second innings against the might of Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie, Michael Kasprowicz and Shane Warne.

In fact, there is only one instance when a team has chosen to bat and been more than two wickets down at lunch since 2000. Again, it was New Zealand, who slumped to 94-4 in 2008 and lost by nine wickets.

Teams sent in on what captains assume is a juicy wicket also prosper.

These statistics might be skewed by the prowess of Australian opening pair Justin Langer and Matthew Hayden, who were indomitable in the early 2000s, but they are real.

A key example came in 2002 when England captain Nasser Hussain looked to put pressure on the hosts at the start of the Ashes. The visitors needed multiple applications of sunscreen. Australia were 125-1 at lunch, 364-2 at stumps and eventually won by 384 runs.

Martin Guptill, Tom Latham, Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor can take solace. If they endure the first session, they will have set a platform from which their team can feel secure.

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