KEY POINTS:
A test series win in South Africa remains one of the last bastions for New Zealand cricket and it will remain that way if the Black Caps cannot lift their bowling penetration.
New Zealand was out-bowled last time and this time, they will have to be more effective in a seamer shoot-out in what are expected to be seamer-friendly conditions.
They will also need to improve in test cricket - the highest form of the game and where John Bracewell's New Zealand teams have underachieved.
In the lead-up, there has been plenty of focus on the top of the batting order but, from three down, I see enough to produce runs and I am excited about seeing Ross Taylor step into Nathan Astle's shoes.
But to win the series, I cannot go past three players - Shane Bond, Chris Martin and Jacob Oram.
While perhaps the average speed of the Black Caps attack has increased in the past few years, do not think for a moment that a potent New Zealand test match bowling attack can do without Bond. The Cantabrian got injured on the last tour and missed the final two tests. In both games, the Black Caps were in a winning position but could not bowl out South Africa. Bond is a quality fast bowler but, more importantly, he is a genuine spearhead of a functional bowling unit.
Bond may not have the raw pace he once possessed but neither did Sir Richard Hadlee when he was in his 30s. Even in a stunted and relatively short cricket existence, Bond has had a hand in many history-making moments. He will need to have a hand in this one if the Black Caps are to win a series in South Africa.
We hope and pray Bond holds up and, when he hasn't, the role of spearhead has often fallen to Martin. Martin is the quiet achiever of New Zealand cricket and he has certainly achieved against South Africa.
He was discovered on the tour of 2000 and bowled New Zealand to victory at Eden Park in 2004. Four of his seven five-wicket bags have come against South Africa, with his 38 Protea wickets coming at just 23.
These figures suggest that, against South Africa, he is a spearhead but I feel he makes a wonderful support seamer if we could see him in that role. As number two to Bond, he could keep the attacking pressure on the South African batsmen. There is the option either to attack for longer at one end through rotating Bond and Martin or attack at both ends in times of dominance.
Two proven and genuine attacking fast men are a luxury New Zealand should be excited about and this is where Oram becomes crucial. If he can regain his bowling form, something that has been lacking for too long, it provides wonderful options.
If Oram can be trusted with the third seamer's role, it means another batsman can be selected. If the pitches provide few runs, then an extra 20 or 30 and a stronger, lower-middle-order could be the difference between the two sides.
If conditions are hard to read then, because Oram is unquestionably the owner of the number six batting spot, you hedge your bets and play the two spinners and still have three quicks.
Or you can play another seamer and ensure the attacking firepower of Bond and Martin remains fresh throughout the test.
There's another bowler whose performance in South Africa will be important and watched with intense interest - but not for his bowling.
Daniel Vettori will be heavily scrutinised over the way he handles the bowling attack. It's the part of the game in which the captain arguably has his most influence and must make the most intuitive calls. In his first test series against such a quality opposition, Vettori's captaincy will be put firmly to the test.
Being a part of, and thus emotionally attached to, the bowling unit will make clear thinking even harder for this intelligent cricketer. He has shown he can manage himself and his co-bowlers effectively in ODI cricket but that form has become quite formulaic.
In tests, it will be he who develops his own blueprint. If he gets it wrong, the quality of the South African batting will punish mistakes.
Because of the absence of Kyle Mills and James Franklin, Vettori and Bracewell will not have great variation to call upon. But a nucleus of Bond, Martin, Oram and Vettori should be enough if they can hit top form.
However, form is an advantage they immediately give up to South Africa, who will be coming out of a challenging series in Pakistan.
Our team come out of a 10-month test match break.
