Tim Southee and team mates celebrate a wicket. Photo / Photosport
Ask the bookmakers and they will tell you that New Zealand are favourites for this two-Test series against England. But should they be? Or should the odds be reversed?
Here are 11 reasons why New Zealand stand a better chance of triumphing than Joe Root's tourists.
1. Home comforts
Test cricket has increasingly become a game of home advantage in recent years and New Zealand have epitomised the trend.
Despite sitting fourth in the test world rankings, the Kiwis have won just two away series (against the minnows of West Indies and Zimbabwe) since England last toured the country five years ago. Compare that with their imposing home record:
Played 20
Won 13
Drawn 4
Lost 3
Indeed, Kane Williamson's side have won seven series at home since England last visited, sinking the likes of India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan along the way. With series victories away from home becoming ever less common, the scale of the task facing Root's team is stark.
2. Wats cooking
It will have been almost a year since BJ Watling's last test outing when he reclaims the gloves in Auckland this week.
The wicketkeeper missed out on the recent series against West Indies with a hip injury, but his return with be a boost to the New Zealand lower order.
In spite of Brendon McCullum's destructive power at the crease, it is Watling who has been his country's most productive wicketkeeper with the bat - his test average of 40.52 when he has the gloves far exceeds any other Kiwi wicketkeeper (minimum of two matches played).
And yet ... should he succumb to injury again, New Zealand have a man chomping at the bit to take his place.
Tom Blundell excelled when filling in for Watling during the series win over West Indies, scoring a maiden test hundred and averaging 68 in that two-match series. He also scored an unbeaten 131 in a warm-up match against England earlier this month.
3. Is Broad the new Hoggy?
In the 2008 series, a stalwart right-arm fast-medium man with an excellent England record was ruthlessly axed because it was felt that he had "lost his nip."
Matthew Hoggard never played a test match again after Hamilton, his years of service and 248 test wickets dismissed. Could Stuart Broad suffer the same fate?
Hoggard's departure cleared the way for Broad and, while there isn't necessarily a 23 to 26-year-old seamer forcing his way into the side, Broad must know that he cannot afford many more 6/10 series.
If he and/or James Anderson does not do the business, England, as ever, look a nothing side.
4. Problems if Stokes CANNOT bowl
It is impossible to downplay the importance of Ben Stokes to any England team, such is his match-winning ability with bat, ball or in the field. Understandably, England are desperate for him to play in this first test.
The ideal scenario would see him slot into the middle-order, while serving as the fourth seamer behind James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Chris Woakes, but that may not be possible, with Stokes battling a back injury sustained while fielding during the one-day series.
That could see him play only as a batsman, which would mean replacing James Vince at No 5 and bringing Mark Wood into the team as an extra bowler.
Two concerns with such a scenario:
- Stokes has never in his test career batted as high as five in the first innings of a match (he has only done so on a few occasions when quick second-innings runs are required).
- England's tail grows longer.
5. Problems if Stokes CAN bowl
The suggestions from within the England camp are that Stokes is on track to be able to bowl in the first Test. He has been building up his bowling practice in recent days and is adamant he can play a roll with the ball.
The trouble is that he was not used for more than a five-over spell during the one-day series and has not bowled in a first-class match since the start of September. Just how much can his body cope with the demands of bowling in a test?
Perversely, the scenario of Stokes not being able to bowl may in fact strengthen the team in some respects. By playing as a fourth seamer, Stokes would knock Wood out of the side and Vince would retain his place.
Who is more likely to positively impact a test out of Vince and Wood? If you've answered the Hampshire man who has yet to score a century in 20 Test innings ... you would be wrong.
6. A long, hard winter (or summer)
International cricket these days is a marathon not a sprint, if you can imagine a marathon as a never-ending race that you have to do until your legs give way.
Albeit that they were allowed a brief break between the legs of their Antipodean war of attrition, England have been on the treadmill for months now.
They played Western Australia on November 4 and this tour to New Zealand, after the Ashes, inevitably has a somewhat muted feel.
Given the results on the field and issues off it, the Australia tour was tough, and England might well have problems raising their game in front of tiny crowds.
7. A trio of (fairly) quicks
Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins are all genuinely fast, and were too good for England on their own hard pitches (although England probably got a bit unlucky that the Aussies were able to keep their quicks fit, for once).
Tim Southee, Trent Boult and Neil Wagner might not be express, but they are a genuine power trio.
They have played 24 tests together, winning 13, taking 316 wickets at 25.84, according to Cricinfo. That compares very favourably with some more storied threesomes: Steyn/Morkel/Philander have 368 at 23.50, but in 31 matches, Flintoff/Hoggard/Harmison, for instance, took 383 at 29.38.
With the right-arm swing of Southee, the left-arm class of Boult and the enforcer Wagner, this is a well-balanced attack and England can afford none of the liberty-taking that has characterised recent top-order fiascoes.
8. Running out of time
Mark Stoneman has something about him - of that most observers can agree. He just looks like a test opening batsman.
But, as Michael Carberry, Adam Lyth et al found out, that can only last so long. While proving admirably durable during the Ashes defeat, Stoneman only managed to pass 50 on two occasions and his test average after 14 innings is a Mark Ramprakash-esque 27.
There is an abundance of goodwill towards the likeable opener from Durham, but he has not scored a half-century in the warm-up matches ahead of this series and two more failures in these tests may put the nail in the coffin of his international career.
9. The Ringo of the Fab Four
Lots has been written over the last few years about the so-called four great batsmen in world cricket today: Steve Smith, Virat Kohli, Kane Williamson and Root.
Joe is in danger of slipping out of that category, while Kane looks ever more assured in it.
The supposed Ashes duel of batting champions between Root and Smith was embarrassingly one-sided, and England cannot afford to have Root continually underperforming.
He needs to start delivering big hundreds consistently, but there is now reasonable doubt as to whether he can. This is the time to deliver.
10. Everybody hates England
New Zealand have had five home series in a row with the visit of England and, with the exception of losing 0-1 in a three-match contest with South Africa, have made themselves into a tough proposition in their own conditions.
Pakistan, Bangladesh and West Indies have both played two-match series in New Zealand in the last year and a bit, and each has been sent packing 2-0.
England represent a step-up in ability from those three outfits, and certainly a more desirable scalp.
Indeed, the Kiwis are ahead of England in the test rankings (fifth plays fourth) and will be keen to put it up to Joe Root's team and widen that gap.
11. The game-changer
For years, Colin de Grandhomme looked likely to be pigeon-holed as a white-ball specialist.
A huge-hitting all-rounder who was born and raised in Zimbabwe, De Grandhomme had already made a name for himself in the shorter form of the game before he was finally given a chance in the test arena aged 30. He has been a permanent fixture in the New Zealand side since.
His medium pace claimed 6-41 in the first innings of his test debut against Pakistan, while last December he scored his country's second-fastest test hundred when he reached three figures off just 71 balls against West Indies. His test career is still in its infancy, but the figures stack up handsomely: an average of 35.54 with the bat and 26.10 with the ball.
De Grandhomme may not be the most consistent performer in the longest form of the game, but the firepower that has stood him in such good stead with the white ball means he could produce a Stokes-esque game-changing moment at any time.
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Bevon Jacobs is yet to play international cricket, but he knows it's where he wants to be.