KEY POINTS:
Jesse Ryder's late-night antics will be no obstacle to a lucrative pay cheque, with the boom talent expected to be one of four 'new entrants' when New Zealand Cricket announces their 20 centrally contracted players tomorrow. The naming has been brought forward from its normal date to avoid
potential friction within the camp while on tour in England.
Ryder and the exciting Tim Southee are likely to be rewarded with mid-ranked retainers, while Aaron Redmond and Daniel Flynn are also expected to sneak onto a list radically different to last year's one.
Gone from the list picked in May last year are Shane Bond, Stephen Fleming, Lou Vincent, Craig McMillan, Hamish Marshall and Michael Papps. Bond was replaced by Iain O'Brien, Marshall by Mathew Sinclair, while Craig Cumming and Matthew Bell picked up the spots vacated by McMillan and Vincent. Fleming played until the end of his contract period so was not replaced, while Papps has not featured since the ill-fated tour to South Africa last year. Of those four replacements, only O'Brien can expect to have his renewed.
The list will confirm the rather fragile state of player depth. While numbers one through nine pick themselves (though not necessarily in the order tabled), it gets a bit tricky from there on. Ryder, Southee and the out-of-form Fulton will probably take spots 10 through 12.
However, the kindest way of explaining the rest would be that they are unproven at top level; the unkind way of describing it would be there are some ordinary international cricketers making up the numbers.
Scott Styris, who could have been as high as fifth last year, faces the biggest drop after making himself available for ODIs only, then performing without distinction in the one-day series against England. Test players get a higher weighting than one-day specialists so his status allied to his form will see him fall towards the bottom of the pecking order.
Ryder is the big winner, providing he can prove his booze-fuelled lifestyle is in the past. He will be handed instant wealth but NZC boss Justin Vaughan will tear up his contract if Ryder lets him down again.
It is likely that shot-in-the-dark test selection Aaron Redmond, Daniel Flynn and one-test allrounder Grant Elliott will be fighting for two of the last three places on the list.
Elliott is likely to be the unlucky one here as he comes into calculations only when Jacob Oram is unfit (which is, admittedly, quite often) and he looked a little overawed in his debut against England.
Redmond has effectively been handed a winning Lotto ticket with his random selection. The basis for selecting the list is the contribution each player is expected to make in the following 12 months. As he is one of just two specialist openers picked for the tests in England - and that is stretching the term 'specialist opener' - he can expect some cricket.
Three other openers tried in recent months have fallen right out of favour. Cumming and Papps were selected for the tour to South Africa but both were found out against the moving ball. Cumming displayed some grit but Papps is increasingly seen as a soft touch away from Christchurch's Village Green.
Bell was brought in to replace Papps for the series against Bangladesh and scored a century, his second in tests. He then went into freefall in the England series and the selectors had clearly deemed his quirky technique was not up to the rigours of international cricket before his face-saving 69 in potentially the final innings of his test career.
Cumming did not survive to meet England, having been dropped after failing against the woeful Bangladeshis. He was replaced by Jamie How who, while less than prolific (201 runs at 33.5), showed a sound enough technique off both front and back foot to suggest he is a long-term answer. He was excellent in the ODIs and is seen as leadership material as well so will take his place among the top level of contractees.
Quite what the selectors have seen in Redmond remains to be seen, though they must feel he has an Andrew Jones-type quality about him. The most likely scenario, however, is it is pure guesswork given that openers Bell, Peter Ingram and Tim McIntosh all boasted higher averages than him in the State Championship.
Talking of averages, Sinclair proved he is still a State Championship bully nonpareil with his 437 runs accumulated at a giddy 145.66. He has not, however, been able to translate that to the test arena and can have few complaints when, as expected, he misses out on a contract. The national selectors were negligent when it came to Sinclair a few years ago but he has had a decent crack at it this season and has still batted like a man with a guillotine hovering over his neck. That can only suggest he no longer has the fortitude to succeed again at the top level.
Sinclair could point to Fulton and say 'show me the difference' but the Cantabrian has friends in higher places and that counts for a lot.
As for the bowlers - well, the trio of O'Brien, Gillespie and Michael Mason will not send shivers down the spines of too many batting orders but they're the best of the second-tier bowlers so deserve their places on the list. They will all see some action, too, given the attrition to the likes of Kyle Mills, Oram and James Franklin.
Players that miss out on central contracts but are selected for New Zealand are still eligible for the match fees - $7325 for tests, $3175 for ODIs and $2075 for T20s - and touring allowances. They will also most likely be near the top of the ranking list for their major associations. The top-ranked player for each first-class side is $36,500.
PREDICTED LIST
(Retainer in brackets)
1. Daniel Vettori ($174,000)
2. Brendon McCullum ($168,000)
3. Jacob Oram ($162,000)
4. Kyle Mills ($156,000)
5. Ross Taylor ($150,000)
6. James Franklin ($144,000)
7. Jamie How ($138,000)
8. Chris Martin ($132,000)
9. Jeetan Patel ($126,000)
10. Jesse Ryder ($120,000)
11. Tim Southee ($114,000)
12. Peter Fulton ($108,000)
13. James Marshall ($102,000)
14. Gareth Hopkins ($96,000)
15. Iain O'Brien ($90,000)
16. Mark Gillespie ($84,000)
17. Michael Mason ($78,000)
18. Scott Styris ($72,000)
19. Aaron Redmond ($72,000)
20. Daniel Flynn ($72,000)
Gone from current contractees: Stephen Fleming, Mathew Sinclair, Craig Cumming, Matthew Bell, Michael Papps.