New Zealand captain Brendon McCullum is nearing a record with his eighth consecutive coin toss loss at the start of the first test against India yesterday.
McCullum has lost 12 out of 16 coin tosses this summer in the series against the West Indies and India.
University of Auckland head of statistics Professor Chris Triggs said the probability of McCullum's losing streak was 1 in 256.
As a comparison, the odds of winning first division Lotto this weekend are 1 in 3.8 million.
"The probability of getting a head on the first toss is a half, the probability of getting two heads is a half times a half (or a quarter) and on and on ... three heads - an eighth."
The same probability applied for tossing eight tails in a row, or any other recurring pattern of eight, Professor Triggs said.
However, McCullum is still one shy of the apparent record for coin toss losses - which is held by his opposition, India captain MS Doni.
In 2010, Doni lost nine straight tosses, equalling former India captain Sunil Gavaskar's record from 1981/1982.