Top 10 reasons this could be the Breakers' big season

Kirk Penney. Photo / Kenny Rodger

Since 1995, when the Warriors broke new ground by entering the NRL, New Zealand league, soccer and basketball teams have embarked on 32 unsuccessful campaigns in pursuit of an Australian domestic title.

The Warriors went closest to breaking this country's duck in 2002, when they were defeated by the Roosters in the grand final, and there was a widespread belief the league club was well placed for another serious title tilt this year.

Those hopes didn't take long to evaporate in the furnace of the NRL, but at least they existed.

The same can't be said for the various incarnations of the soccer teams, with the Kingz, Knights and Phoenix never having reached a post-season, or even gone close.

Next up in pursuit of that elusive Aussie silverware are the Breakers, the basketball club that has been heading steadily in the right direction in recent seasons.

The Breakers start their season at home to the Taipans next Thursday.

1 Kirk Penney MVP

The Breakers have the best player in the league. Penney didn't cut it in the NBA but his displays for the Breakers often leave knowledgeable watchers shaking their heads and wondering just how that could be. A terrific three-point shooter, Penney is much more than just a marksman. His ability to consistently penetrate on the dribble and either score, draw a foul, or frequently both, make him a nightmare to defend. Most opposing coaches accept that he will get close to 30 points a night and simply decide to live with it. But if they do opt to double-team him, he has the distribution skills and vision to create opportunities for his teammates. Penney just might have what it takes to lead a Kiwi team to glory.

2 Simple maths

With the league having contracted to just eight teams - down from 13 just two seasons ago - the Breakers' chances have improved to, well, one in eight. Pretty good odds, really. With six of those eight teams making the playoffs, making the post-season should be a given. The demise of powerhouse Brisbane and Sydney clubs the Bullets and Kings, as well as Souths Dragons, have removed a clutch of perennial contenders from the picture. There is also a distinct lack of teams from Australia's larger metropolitan areas, with four of the eight teams representing regions with a population of 500,000 or less. Melbourne's Tigers are still the big boys on the block, hailing from a city of 3.8 million, while the Breakers' support base of Auckland's 1.3 million people places them third, just behind Perth's 1.4 million. The Taipans are the minnows, with Cairns boasting a population of just 140,000.

3 Stability amid the chaos

In the space of a couple of seasons the Breakers have gone from whipping boys to established powerhouse. They are, in fact, a model club, with stable ownership, first-rate facilities, growing crowds and a strong presence in their local community. And while the Breakers have gone from strength-to-strength, many of their rivals - such as Brisbane, Sydney and even last season's champions Souths - have folded. With so many teams going to the wall, the Breakers' biggest worry wasnot having anyone to play against.While the league survived, many of the remaining teams, such as Cairns and Adelaide have undergone tremendous upheaval and are still far from stable propositions.

4 At home in the Lucky Country

If there is one thing that has held back New Zealand teams in their transtasman endeavours it is the inability to win consistently across the pond. Fittingly, it was the Breakers who finally broke that trend. Last season they dropped their first away game in overtime but then went on to win seven straight on Aussie pine, a run that propelled them to the top of the heap heading into Christmas. An injury to point guard CJ Bruton combined with a tough schedule sparked a post-Christmas slide of eight defeats in nine matches. Although they tumbled to third, the club still ended with a respectable 8-7 road record. And any Kiwi team who wins more than half of its games in Australia is going to be in the hunt.

5 Big is better, huge is best

If there was one area where the Breakers were found wanting last year, it was in the 'bigs'. A side heavily weighted in favour of perimeter shooting was outmuscled down the stretch. The team's premier big import, centre Rick Rickert, struggled in his comeback season from back surgery, while long-time back-up Tim Behrendorf possessed height but little bulk and lacked aggression. There was also insufficient back-up for ageing forward Tony Ronaldson. Those deficiencies seem to have been addressed. Rickert remains and the likeable American could well produce a bounceback season, while the downgrading of his contract allowed for the recruitment of former NBA forward Awvee Storey, a seasoned pro whose aggressive reputation precedes him. The depth also looks better, with 2.13m Kiwi rookie Alex Pledger providing another big body to bang away in the paint.

6 Coaches count

Much of the credit for the Breakers' steady upward trajectory of recent seasons must go to their coach, Andrej Lemanis - and club management for sticking with him. The pre-Lemanis years were dire, with the club winning just 32 per cent of matches under Jeff Green and Frank Arsego. The early Lemanis years weren't much better, with the winning percentage dipping a point to 31 over his first two seasons. But Lemanis is a young coach. He continues to improve with each season and has earned the faith of his senior players. In the last two seasons the club has posted a 34-26 mark. His win percentage has risen to 43 and should continue to improve. His tendency to rely on stock answers during interviews and refusal to get overly carried away with victory or agitated in defeat can be annoyingly dull, but a calm and stable coach who gets the results is vastly preferable to one who is all mouth and no trousers.

7 The Andrew Golota factor

Polish heavyweight boxer Andrew Golota fought former world champion Riddick Bowe twice. In both fights Golota was leading on all of the judges scorecards heading into the later rounds, only to be disqualified for repeated low blows. When asked why he'd done exactly the same thing in the second fight that caused him to lose the first, he produced the memorable quote: "I stupid, I stupid, I stupid." Happily, the Breakers aren't in the same camp. They tend to learn from their mistakes. In recent times they have learned that having a superstar solo performer like Carlos Powell is no help when it comes to building a team, and that a solid core of local talent is what's required. Last year they learned that shooting the lights out from the perimeter will only get you so far. This year's team looks better balanced. If it fails, it won't be through repeating the same mistakes.

8 Wham, bam, thank you ...

It wasn't an over-indulgence on the Christmas turkey that caused last season's campaign to hit the skids in January and February. The players looked tired and beaten up. Many were playing hurt. Others weren't playing much at all. A side that had proved more than a match for anyone when at full strength was outplayed by pretty much everyone once injuries and fatigue started to bite. The introduction, then, of 40-minute matches - down from 48 - should help. For starters, it will mean less minutes in the legs of the likes of Kirk Penney, CJ Bruton and Tony Ronaldson when the business end of the season arrives. It also means clubs don't need to be as deep on the bench - which should help offset the loss of Phill Jones, the player voted the best bench contributor in the league last season.

9 Been there, gonna do that again

Two years ago the Breakers were a team stacked with playoff veterans, but which still hadn't been to the playoffs. Now, they are a team that has featured in the post-season two years running - and one that confidently expects to be there every season. They also have players who have been the whole way. CJ Bruton, Tony Ronaldson and Dillon Boucher all have titles to their credit and know what it takes to push on from last season's semifinal finish. The likes of Kirk Penney, Oscar Forman and Paul Henare form an experienced core, while local product Tom Abercrombie is an exciting young prospect who could turn out to be the type of X-factor player that transforms a team from challengers to champions.

10 It's time for Lady Luck to smile

There's a saying that it's better to be lucky than good, but to go where no New Zealand team has yet gone the Breakers will need to be both. It could be a flukey half-court basket, a dodgy refereeing call or a key opponent slipping a disc picking up his newspaper the morning of a playoff game. Whatever, it's about time fortune smiled on this brave nation. Our rugby team is rubbish, our netballers are fickle and the best thing you can say about the league mob is that most of them have steered clear of the courts this season. There's another saying that good teams make their own luck. Let's hope the Breakers are a good team.