Basketball: Penney's shoulders bear weight of Breakers' hopes

Kirk Penney will be expected provide the majority of the Breakers’ offence against the Blaze tonight. Photo / Brett Phibbs

There will be plenty riding on Kirk Penney's shoulders when the Breakers chase the big win over Gold Coast Blaze on the North Shore tonight that would give them their best chance of making the NBL playoffs.

The reigning MVP and league's most potent scorer with 22.8 points per game, Penney will be expected to provide a hefty chunk of the offence against a Blaze side which will also be feeling the heat after dropping three of their past five games.

Although a narrow win tonight would keep the Breakers alive, it would then take a freak run of results for them to still be in the playoff picture when the regular season ends on Sunday. Their best shot is to beat the Blaze tonight by eight - thus earning the crucial head-to-head tiebreak - and then hope the Blaze go down again on Saturday in Melbourne against a Tigers side that will be keen to farewell retiring legends Chris Anstey and Sam Mackinnon on a winning note.

Penney's 23 points against the Hawks last week earned him his second NBL player-of-the-week accolade in the space of three weeks. The Breakers will need every bit of that sort of production from their star scorer if they are to get the necessary margin over a Gold Coast side packed with scoring ability.

The Blaze shot a remarkable 65 per cent from the field, including 14/19 three pointers, to route the Breakers 110-96 when they last visited Auckland in early November.

The Blaze also took the second encounter between the sides 90-83 on New Year's eve but the Breakers hit back with a crucial 95-81 win in the last meeting on January 23.

Penney will certainly be the go-to guy but with all 11 players who took the court last week getting on the scoresheet and a fit-again Rick Rickert to be added to the mix, he expects to receive plenty of help.

"Obviously, I am going to be involved in a lot of the scoring options but, given last week's game where everyone in the team scored, I think we are in a really good place," Penney said.

"Everyone is confident and for the first time in a month every player is healthy and we have a full squad all firing. It is really exciting to know that anyone can step up at any time."

Staying aggressive for the entire 40 minutes would be the key to the Breakers getting the result they needed, he said.

"We've got to win the game first and foremost because there are two other teams that could fall below us. But if we are in a situation where we have a chance to push and maybe extend a lead then we are going to do it.

"We need to go out guns blazing and see what happens."

Having finally looked like the title contenders they were expected to be over their current four-match win streak, the Breakers will rue a horrible mid-season slump if they miss the playoff cut.

For now, however, any frustrations have been put aside.

"Within the group we are not [angry]," Penney said.

"When we are like that we drop a game. You think of the Wollongong and Perth [home] games - we should have won those games. And then we lose to Melbourne with a 17-point fourth quarter lead. We just have to get away from that and forget about it.

"Maybe after the season when it is all said and done you'd have a bit of a sour taste but as it is we still have a great shot to get in. It is in our hands from the standpoint that if we want to beat the Blaze and maybe take their spot, we have got to take care of the first half of it, which is beating them at home.

"We still have a reasonable control over our destiny, it is what we make of it."

RIGHT DOWN TO THE FINAL BASKET

Heading into the NBL's final round, the Breakers could still finish anywhere between second and fifth. Fourth place or better would get them into the playoffs. For that to happen they need to win both remaining games and have other results go their way. Here's what could happen.

SCENARIO 1: Breakers lose one of their remaining two games. Wildcats, Crocs, Blaze and Hawks make playoffs.

SCENARIO 2: Breakers win two remaining games. Hawks win two, Blaze win one, Crocs win two. Breakers finish fifth, miss the playoffs.

SCENARIO 3: Breakers win two remaining games. Hawks win one, Blaze win one, Crocs win one game. Breakers finish fifth, miss playoffs.

SCENARIO 4: Breakers win two remaining games. Hawks win one, Blaze lose two, Crocs lose one. Four teams tied on 15 wins. Hawks have all three series splits so finish third. If the Breakers beat Blaze by eight or more, they go through. If Breakers beat Blaze by seven or less, they go through on best points differential of the three teams.

SCENARIO 5: Breakers win two remaining games. Hawks lose two, Blaze lose two, Crocs lose one. Hawks finish second. Breakers finish third as they have best points difference of the three tied teams.

SCENARIO 6: Breakers win two remaining games. Blaze win one, Hawks win one, Crocs lose one. Blaze finish second with 16 wins. Hawks have two series wins so finish third. Breakers have series over Crocs, so go through in fourth.