KEY POINTS:
It's a simple equation for the Breakers heading into tonight's final regular season game in Perth: win and they'll have at least one home playoff game. Lose, and their fate will be in other team's hands.
Townsville, who played overnight against Gold Coast, will have the biggest influence on how the playoff cards fall. A Crocodiles win tonight in Cairns would also ensure the Breakers play their first ever finals match in Auckland.
But the Breakers, who can still finish as high as fourth or as low as eighth after having their four-game win streak snapped by Sydney Kings on Wednesday night, would prefer to determine their own fate.
Breakers general manager Richard Clarke has worked through the various scenarios.
"We'd finish fourth if we beat Perth and Townsville drop both games and 5th if Townsville win both games and we beat the Wildcats," Clarke said. "We'd remain in 6th place if Perth and Townsville won their remaining matches and also if we lost to Perth, but Townsville beat Cairns. That Crocs-Taipans match is the critical one because even if the Gold Coast end up with the same number of wins as us, we've beaten them twice this season and would stay ahead of them on the table."
There are two worst-case scenarios that would tip the Breakers out of the top six and the home play-off, leaving them with an away trip to Cairns in both instances.
Both involve the Breakers losing tonight and slipping into multi-team ties.
A 5th placing would have the Breakers at Vector Arena next Wednesday night, a 6th placing would see them play on Thursday night and a 4th placing would give them a Friday night match.
After turning in a flat defensive performance against the Kings, coach Andrej Lemanis was confident his side could quickly get their fizz back tonight.
"It's a fun environment to play [in Perth], it's certainly hostile, but it helps pump everybody up and there's still a lot on the line," Lemanis said. He admitted concern over the fitness of veteran forward Tony Ronaldson, a key part of the Breakers' playoff charge, who only logged 20 minutes in Sydney with his niggly achilles tendon injury. He will be assessed by medical staff but it's hoped he can battle through.
"He's got 601 games of experience in the league and that's invaluable to our group.
"Our strength has been our team all year, and all members of the team contributing, so we need everybody pulling their weight."
