Basketball: Can the Breakers win tonight?

Let's hope there's no hard falls like this one Vukona experienced against the Wildcats. Photo / Dean Purcell

HOW THE BREAKERS CAN WIN IT...

1 Just by turning up

Seriously. It's an old adage that no team can expect to win simply by turning up, but that doesn't apply to this match. The Breakers turned up for game one and smashed the Taipans to pieces. They didn't show at all in Cairns but despite shooting like vision-impaired jellyfish still took the game to double overtime. If the Breakers play to even half of their potential they will win. End of story.

2 Penney steps up in the big game

The Breakers' star scorer was quiet in game two, notching just 12 points and going 0/5 from the three-point line. Penney seldom returns such lowly numbers twice in a row. If the Breakers can get him enough open looks and his back allows him to penetrate on the dribble when he needs to, he should post a number closer to the 25 points he scored in game one, or maybe even the season-high 38 he racked up in game two against Perth.

3 Penney is shut down, but his band of merry men knock 'em down

The Taipans did a great job of taking the ball out of Penney's hands in game two. If they can repeat that effort tonight the Breakers' chances will swing on Penney's support cast of Tom Abercrombie, CJ Bruton, Gary Wilkinson and Kevin Braswell lighting up the scoreboard. Wilkinson and Abercrombie have already put up some good numbers in the playoffs but Bruton has been quiet. There's every chance the multiple title winner will catch fire tonight.

4 Mika kills them on the boards

If the Breakers win the rebounding battle they will win the game. Cairns have some scoring potential but their arsenal is a popgun to the Breakers' howitzer. If the Breakers win the boards and are allowed to put up more shots than their opponent, enough should go in for them to win by plenty. Vukona is the key to that. If he can stay out of foul trouble and gobble up the rebounds the Breakers are halfway there.

AND (GULP) WHAT COULD GO WRONG...

1 Kirk Penney wakes up with a bad back

Anyone who has suffered disc problems with their back knows they are nasty, unpredictable beasts. Penney may have felt fine as he went to bed last night but could just as easily have struggled to bend over to put his slippers on this morning. That's a doomsday scenario, certainly, but not beyond the realms of possibility. However, the Breakers have won plenty of games without Penney and would still start favourites should his back spasms return.

2 Change is not always as good as a rest

The traditional approach to big games is to keep the build-up the same as for any other match. That way routines and comfort zones are maintained and performance should be unaffected. The Breakers have gone away from that formula. Players have been put off limits to the media, while yesterday's final training session was closed altogether with media ordered to assemble in the carpark in the rain. The club also botched its ticket run out, leaving some hardcore supporters out in the cold. Not great PR from a club that prides itself on its fan-friendly image.

3 Mika, Dillon and Tom fall foul of the refs

Aussie refs in an Australia v New Zealand contest? Always a cause for concern. In fairness to the gentlemen with the whistles, the refereeing during the playoffs has been a step up from some of the baffling officiating that graced the regular season, so it seems the best folks are doing the job. That said, you still get the feeling the likes of Vukona, Boucher and Abercrombie have targets on their backs. That trio often court foul trouble and if it strikes tonight there could be consequences.

4 The damn ball just won't go in the hoop

Game one against the Wildcats anyone? Or game two against the Taipans? They've improved in the paint of late but the Breakers are still an outside shooting team. That's all fine and dandy when the shots are whistling through the hoop but it's a recipe for trouble when the shooters all go cold at once. The result is big runs in either direction on the scoreboard. If Penney and co go cold and Phill Jones and Dorsey heat up, look out.

EXPERT PICKS

Kenny Stone: Auckland Pirates coach

Breakers by more than 10

It will be an exciting game but I don't think it will be close. I'm picking the Breakers to win by more than 10.

It will be higher scoring than the last one, I'm looking for more movement out of them, better offensive execution but it will be a battle. But I think the Breakers will prevail in the end.

What the Breakers have shown throughout the season is that when they have one bad performance they've been able to come back from those. We saw that in the Perth series and they learnt from that. They'll make some adjustments and understand their roles and we'll see an improved performance from them.

Chris Tupu: Nelson Giants coach

Breakers by three

It could be an issue if Kirk Penney does have problems with his back. With a fit Kirk I thought they could pull it off at home. The momentum is with Cairns, having held home court advantage they have nothing to lose when they come here with a team that matches up quite well against the Breakers.

They missed a lot of early shots in game one, they did have a lot of good looks but they just didn't knock them down. The Breakers' start is critical and if they get the ball rolling, get the crowd into the game and start hitting their shots they're going to be tough. If the Taipans can hang around and keep pace with them it's going to be close.

I've got a hat in both camps with Mika Vukona and Josh Bloxham lining up for the Breakers and Phill Jones the captain of the Giants. It's going to be a great match-up.

Andrew Mulligan: Breakers commentator for Sky Sport

Breakers by 12

It's going to be close. It's not going to be like the first game and I think both teams, not just in the first quarter but in the first half, will be a bit uptight just because of the occasion and I think the Breakers got caught out a bit through the whole game of game two. It will be close in the first half but I don't think the Breakers will have two bad shooting nights in a row.

I think they won't find it as hostile as other teams do playing in Cairns but I think the atmosphere will lift the Breakers more than it will affect the Taipans.

They say the injuries aren't a factor but I'd like to see it firsthand. Cairns will try and exploit that and they'll be really physical with Kirk Penney. It worked the first time and they did a great job switching on defence on him. However the Breakers have too many weapons for the Taipans to handle.