KEY POINTS:
The next 72 hours will likely determine the Breakers' playoff fate.
Win tonight against fourth-placed Perth Wildcats and back it up with another victory over the hapless Dragons in Melbourne on Saturday night and the Breakers will almost certainly be in the post-season for the first time.
Lose
either of those matches and life becomes much, much tougher.
Currently in the eighth and final playoff spot on the NBL ladder and two wins clear of ninth-placed Adelaide, the New Zealand team's playoff aspirations sit on a knife edge. But with their last three games of the regular season all against teams in the top four, any slip-ups over the next three days could see an unkind cut.
The time to strike is most definitely now.
"It doesn't take Einstein to figure that out," coach Andrej Lemanis said.
The Breakers' rollercoaster season has thrown up a host of pivotal clashes and so far Lemanis' side have managed to dodge most of the snakes while landing on the ladders. Tonight's match is certainly another crunch encounter.
"I haven't felt that but it seems to be every week everyone in the media is saying 'gee this is a big match'," Lemanis said. "But at this stage of the season, with the ladder the way it is, there are probably a whole bunch of teams feeling that way about every match.
"The key for us, as it has been all year, is not to get lost in worrying too much about the outcomes, it is more about the process that we need to go through to give ourselves a chance of winning the game."
The Breakers may have lost their last eight against the Wildcats - a run than spans back to 2005 - but they won't be serious underdogs to break that streak tonight. Despite their healthy position on the ladder, the Wildcats have won just five of their 13 road games, while the Breakers are 9-4 at home on the North Shore.
If tonight's game is winnable, Saturday's should be a banker. The Dragons have won just four games all season, although one of those was against the Breakers in round seven.
Lemanis might be playing it cool but if the Breakers haven't booked their playoff spot by Saturday night, they will struggle to do so at all.
The second-placed Melbourne Tigers (19-6) visit the North Shore for the Breakers' final home game of the season next Thursday. After that they finish on the road against runaway leaders Sydney Kings (21-3) and a rematch against the Wildcats in Perth. With the Kings and Wildcats boasting a combined home record of 21-3, the Breakers cannot bank on getting much out of their final road trip.
The stakes may be increasing with every match but the prospect of being involved in post-season basketball for the first time was enticing, Lemanis said. "The guys know how big these games are. We appreciate we can deliver a historic first for the club."
Luck has not been with them. An awful run of Breakers' injuries seems set to continue tonight, with veteran forward Tony Ronaldson almost certain to be ruled out against his former club with an Achilles problem.
Ronaldson's experience and muscular presence would have been a plus in what is sure to be a tense, physical encounter but the Breakers won't lack size as they look to match up with the imposing Wildcats.
Replacement import centre Derrick Alston's influence in the paint has grown week-by-week and Lemanis is also likely to again rely heavily on Tim Behrendorf, who notched a season-high 37 minutes in last week's victory over the Razorbacks.
Victory tonight would see the Breakers leapfrog Cairns Taipans and draw level with both Gold Coast and Townsville. It would also suck the Wildcats back into a four-way battle for fourth and a bye into the second round of the playoffs.
That the Breakers were still in that battle at this stage of the season was a nice change after four years of struggle, Lemanis said.
"It's not like we are sitting here and saying 'we need to finish eighth'. We need to play well and finish as high as we can finish."
